Indicator Survey: Ganjar-Erick Duet Wins All Simulations Of The 2024 Presidential Election

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JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Indicators survey institute stated that the duet between Ganjar Pranowo and Erick Thohir has the potential to win the 2024 presidential election. This can be seen from the latest survey simulations conducted on June 20-24, 2023.

The main researcher of Indicators, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, said that the Ganjar-Erick pair were significantly superior if they fought with the Prabowo Subianto-Airlangga Hartarto pair and the Anies Baswedan-Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono pair.

"If Ganjar and Erick are superior to Prabowo-Airlangga," said Burhanuddin in an official virtual release, Sunday, July 23.

In this simulation, Ganjar-Erick managed to get 37.7 percent support. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Airlangga was 33.2 percent and Anies-AHY was 21.8 percent. The respondents who have not answered in the simulation were 7.3 percent.

In the second simulation, Burhanuddin said Ganjar-Erick also managed to win over Prabowo-Gibran Rakabuming Raka and the Anies-AHY pair.

In this beginning, Ganjar-Erick received 37.3 percent support. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Gibran was 32.6 percent and Anies-AHY was 22.7 percent. Respondents who have not answered in the simulation were 7.4 percent.

In the third simulation, Burhanuddin said that the Ganjar-Erick pair managed to excel from Prabowo-Muhaimin Iskandar and Anies-AHY.

The Ganjar-Erick pair collected 37.6 percent support. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Muhaimin was 32.7 percent and Anies-AHY was 22.1 percent. Respondents who have not answered in the simulation were 7.6 percent.

It is known, the population of Indicators surveys is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in the general election, namely those who are 17 years old or older, or are already married when the survey is conducted.

Sampel withdrawal using the multistage random sampling method. In this survey, the number of samples is 1,220 people. Samples come from all provinces which are proportionally distributed.

Assuming a simple random sampling method, the sample size of 1,220 respondents had an error tolerance (margin of error-MoE) of around 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained. Quality control of the interview results was conducted randomly by 20 percent of the total sample by supervisors by returning to the selected respondents (spot check). In quality control, no significant errors were found.