LKP Survey: Moeldoko Can Be A Black Horse In The 2024 Presidential Election

Presidential Chief of Staff Dr. Moeldoko (Photo via KSP)

JAKARTA - The Political Climatology Institute (LKP) found that the competition for presidential reading ahead of the 2024 General Election was increasingly narrowing down on three figures; Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. However, there is one name that could be a dark horse.

However, LKP said, the remaining 14 months before the implementation of the 2024 General Election still allowed a surprise made by the prospective central board presidential candidate. One of the figures who has the potential to become a black horse is the Presidential Chief of Staff (KSP), Moeldoko.

"As many as 24.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for Prabowo, then 23.7 percent said the names of Ganjar Pranowo, and 22.9 percent made choices on Anies Baswedan. It is difficult to conclude methodology to conclude who is ranked the highest in the LKP survey this time," said LKP Executive Director, Usman Rachman, in his statement, Thursday, December 8.

Usman said that when support for top presidential candidates was increasingly consolidated, the dynamics of the electability of the mid- and lower-board presidential candidates actually showed a stagnant tendency. Even the electability of several mid-table presidential candidates, such as Sandiaga Uno, Erick Thohir, and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) showed a downward trend. "Based on the results of the LKP survey, the only significant increasing mid-board and bottom-board candidates are KSP Moeldoko," said Usman.

Usman explained, in previous LKP surveys, Moeldoko's electability rate had never reached 2 percent, so he was always at the bottom of the survey rating. However, in this survey, the electability of the former TNI Commander shot up to 4.2 percent and managed to poke the top five would be presidential candidates in 2024. "Thus, Moeldoko is the only central board presidential candidate and the bottom board with the most successful development of electability. Therefore, it is not impossible that Moeldoko can become a 'black horse' which surprisingly ahead of the 2024 presidential election and shift the dominance of the top presidential candidate," concluded Usman.

As for the results, if the presidential election is held at this time, the top presidential candidate is occupied by three names, namely Prabowo Subianto in the first place with 24.2 percent. Ganjar Pranowo is in second place with 23.7 percent, Anies Baswedan with 22.9 percent.

While the board candidates were filled by Ridwan Kamil 7.6 percent, Moeldoko 4.2 percent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 4.1 percent, Erick Thohir 3.5 percent, and Sandiaga Uno 2.0 percent.

While the lower-end presidential candidates are Puan Maharani 1.8 percent, Airlangga Hartarto 1.4 percent, and Muhaimin Iskandar 0.9 percent. The latest research by the Political Climatology Institute (LKP) was conducted on 17-29 November 2022 involving 1,200 randomly taken respondents in 34 provinces throughout Indonesia. The survey population is that all Indonesians aged 17 years and over or not 17 years but are married. Data collection is carried out using face-to-face interview techniques with respondents, carried out by trained personnel with questionnaire guidelines. The margin of error of this survey is +/- 2.83 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. This time's LKP survey is also equipped with qualitative research, in particular, to assess the feasibility level of a figure to become a presidential candidate as well as a candidate for a national leader.