JAKARTA - The Politics Research & Consulting Institute (PRC) together with the Indonesian Political Parameter (PPI) released the results of a national survey of potential presidential and vice presidential candidates for the 2024 presidential election.
In a simulation involving 15 names, Ganjar Pranowo won with 25 percent gain. Prabowo Subianto is in second place with 22.9 percent, Anies Baswedan is third with 12.4 percent.
Sandiaga Salahuddin was fourth with 9.4 percent, Ridwan Kamil 5.8 percent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 5.2 percent. Seventh Gatot Nurmantyo 1.9 percent.
While the eighth were Khofifah Indar Parawansa 1.6 percent, the ninth Tri Rismaharini 1.4 percent, the tenth Puan Maharani with 1.1 percent.
Eleven Susi Pudjiastuti 0.9 percent, twelve Airlangga Hartarto 0.8 percent, thirteen Erick Tohir 0.6 percent, fourteen Surya Paloh 0.4 percent and don't know 10.6 percent.
This survey was conducted on 12 November - 4 December 2021. By involving 1,600 respondents in 34 provinces. The criteria for respondents are at least 17 years old or already married.
Sampling using a multi-stage random sampling method with a margin of error of 2.5 percent and a confidence level of 9.5 percent.
Interestingly, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) has a surplus of cadres to be promoted as presidential candidates. There are 3 names included in the survey radar, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Puan Maharani and Tri Rismaharini. So who will PDIP support?
While on the other hand, Airlangga Hartarto, who became a Golkar champion, is still 'at home' with a score of 0.8 percent in 15 simulations of presidential candidates. Unfortunately, Muhaimin Iskandar's PKB gacoan was not included in the simulation radar. Cak Imin had to be satisfied with getting 0.1 percent in a simulation of 32 presidential candidates.
So, how do the political parties respond to the hottest presidential candidate whose electability is still low?
PDIP refuses to choose between reward or madam
Deputy Secretary General of PDIP Arif Wibowo said the PDIP would not be trapped in a choice that could trigger turmoil, especially regarding the option of choosing the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo or DPR Chair Puan Maharani as a presidential candidate for 2024.
From the results of the PRC survey with the PPI, Ganjar Pranowo's electability is 25 percent or much higher than Puan Maharani's 1.1 percent.
"We cannot be faced with a choice. Moreover, this choice is a provocative choice, which has a tendency to divide unity and integrity," said Arif Wibowo in the online release of the National Political Outlook Survey: Observing the Axis of the Party Coalition, Monday, December 27. The issue of the 2024 presidential election, continued Arif, will be decided directly by the PDIP General Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri. Because, he said, it was the president's prerogative. Arif assessed that there were many things that PDI-P needed to consider in deciding which candidate it would carry later. The most important thing, he said, is that the candidate must provide benefits to the people, nation, state and party. equally happy, then anti-ignorance, anti-poverty. So show your dedication, your ability to eradicate poverty, that's what's important, "concluded Arif.
Golkar: 2 Years of Work Really Boost Airlangga's Electability
Deputy Chairperson of the Golkar Party, Ahmad Doli Kurnia, is optimistic that the electability of the general chairman will continue to increase ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election.
According to him, Golkar still has two years to carry out political work to boost Airlangga's electability, which is now stagnant at 0.8 percent in a simulation of 15 presidential candidates.
"We still have two years, of course we have to be consistent with our decisions. We have to work more seriously," said Doli in the online release of the National Political Outlook Survey: Observing the Axis of the Party Coalition, Monday, December 27.
The chairman of Commission II of the House of Representatives said that Golkar has its own mechanism to evaluate Airlangga's electability as a comparison from survey results of a number of institutions which show the electability of his chairman is still low. "What is clear is that today we have decided that we have a presidential candidate, and that is what all party ranks are currently working on," concluded Doli.
PKB: 2 more years Cak Imin Salip Ganjar
The National Awakening Party (PKB) is optimistic that General Chair Muhaimin Iskandar or Cak Imin can increase his electability as a presidential candidate in 2024.
In the Politics Research & Consulting (PRC) and Indonesian Political Parameters (PPI) surveys that were just released today, Cak Imin's electability was recorded at 0.1 percent in a simulation of 32 names. While in the simulation of 15 names, Cak Imin's name was not on the radar.
Deputy Chairperson of the PKB, Jazuli Fawaid, assessed that there was still plenty of time for Cak Imin to be in the top five of the presidential candidate survey. In fact, he said, in the next two years, Cak Imin, who later changed his nickname to Gus Muhaimin, overtook the electability of the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo. Because according to Jazilul, the electability of potential presidential candidates for both Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto has not yet reached 30 percent. It is known, in the survey, the electability of Ganjar in the simulation of 32 names was recorded at 23.1 percent and Prabowo 21.6 percent.
"I've learned that if a person has not yet 30 percent of the electorate, there is no guarantee that he will become President. This means that Mr. Muhaimin and Mr. Ganjar's numbers are the same, there is no guarantee of winning. So I took an Uber in two years, Mr. Muhaimin, to overtake Mr. Ganjar. It could be," said Jazilul in the online release of the National Political Outlook Survey: Observing the Axis of the Party Coalition, Monday, December 27.
From the existing research, although the names available are the same, Jazilul said, none exceeds 30 percent.
"So the name of Mbak Puan, Pak Muhaimin, who is not significant to win today. It means zero. If it's zero, we can't be optimistic even though our Ketum's number is not big yet?" "Instead of being pessimistic, the Deputy Chairperson of the MPR will use the results of this survey as evaluation material. Jazilul stated that Cak Imin's subordinates will use the 2024 General Election as a momentum for PKB. Moreover, he said, the survey results will change over time." Can a portrait of the victory be seen today? I'm not sure. Because the figure is below 30 percent. For example, Pak Ganjar, Pak Prabowo wants to win by 25 percent while the political moment is still two years away. So that's a challenge. So just note, 2024 is a momentum for political parties. So don't let it be just because our survey is zero percent considered a loss. Yesterday Mr Ma'ruf just became vice president. If people say this is because of Mr. Jokowi, yes, whatever the way, politics is momentum, "said Jazilul.
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30 April 2024, 14:32
