Exclusive, Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati Reminds that at the End of the 21st Century the Earth's Temperature Rise will Increase by 3.5 Degrees

Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati reminded all parties to care about the increase in earth temperature at the end of the 21st century. (Photo Savic Rabos, DI Raga VOI)

The temperature on the earth's surface is getting hotter day by day. According to the Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Prof. Ir. Dwikorita Karnawati, MSc, PhD, earth temperature at the end of the 21st century will increase by 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius. As a result of the earth's temperature continuing to rise, a drought will occur which will lead to a food crisis. There is no choice, all parties must be aware of this condition. Even now, disasters are happening everywhere, especially when the temperature rise has reached 3 times than it is now.

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Many people have been warned about increasing earth temperatures and the greenhouse effect for several decades. The action agenda that has been carried out to anticipate this situation is the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Indonesia is one of the countries that signed this agreement sponsored by the United Nations (UN).

This agreement, as reported by Wikipedia, guides countries to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to limit global warming to no more than 2.0 degrees Celsius.

According to Dwikorita Karnawati, her agency predicts that the increase in earth's temperature at the end of the 21st century will increase significantly. "BMKG predicts that the earth's temperature at the end of the 21st century will experience an increase of 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius compared to the era before industry existed," she said.

Even now, surface air temperatures in Indonesia and the world have risen by 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius, disasters are happening everywhere. “What if it rises by 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius? This means that disasters will occur three times as often as they do now. "It's a pity for our children and grandchildren if we leave the earth like this," she said.

Recently, Jakarta and its surroundings have become the center of attention because of their poor air quality. What's interesting, said Prof. Rita, as she is usually called, the air quality in Jakarta at the weekend may change. "According to our monitoring results from early August 2023 to September 2023, the air quality in Jakarta and its surroundings does look unhealthy, as shown by the yellow indicator. However, at weekends (Saturday and Sunday), the indicator changes to blue, which means the air quality changes to moderate," she told Edy Suherli, Savic Rabos, and Irfan Medianto from VOI who visited her at the BMKG office in the Kemayoran area, Central Jakarta, a few times ago. She talked a lot about climate change, air quality, and how to deal with it in the future. Here is an excerpt from the full interview.

According to the Head of BMKG, Dwikorita Karnawati, over the weekend the air quality in Jakarta improved. (Photo Savic Rabos, DI Raga VOI)

Jakarta is in the spotlight because of air pollution. The Air Quality Index (IQAir version) in Jakarta reached 167 AQI US, which is included in the "unhealthy" category. What can be done to reduce this number?

We are tasked with supporting the Ministry of the Environment in monitoring air quality in Indonesia. We immediately convey the results of the monitoring to the public via the BMKG application. The equipment we use to monitor weather is standardized and well-calibrated. According to our monitoring results from early August to September, the air quality in Jakarta and its surroundings does look unhealthy, as shown by the yellow indicator. However, on weekends (Saturday and Sunday), the indicator turns blue, which means the air quality is moderate.

What does this mean?

This means there are changes as we enter the weekend. We have noticed this change since before the bad air quality incident in Jakarta made the headlines. So, on weekends, air quality improves. This happens because the use of motorized vehicles has decreased drastically, because workers who usually work in Jakarta are on holiday and do not use vehicles to go to the office.

Our friends from the climatology department made observations via the Sentinel satellite, and they found several sources of air pollution. The biggest is transportation activities, apart from that there is industry and PLTU. After knowing the source of this pollution, we must be serious about solving this problem. BMKG is collaborating with the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment, the Ministry of Transportation, the Ministry of the Environment, and the National Police of the Republic of Indonesia. We share duties, where the Ministry of Transportation and the National Police Traffic Corps regulate traffic, while the public is directed to use public transportation rather than individual transportation. The Minister of Environment and Forestry together with the Police regulates emission tests, and vehicles that do not pass the test cannot be used. There is also the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources who is in charge of regulating PLTUs which are also contributors to air pollution.

What else does BMKG do?

We, together with the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) and related agencies, carry out weather modifications to clean pollutants in the air. Together with the DKI Jakarta regional government, we are also implementing a dew generator or "water mist" which is sprayed into the air through the roofs of tall buildings. On top of the BMKG building, we have installed two devices to spray and clean the air around the area. BMKG also collaborated with the TNI to spray water particles through aircraft. In fact, it is the collective responsibility of all of us to protect the environment. The rules for dealing with air pollution already exist, we just have to implement them.

After making these efforts, what is the evaluation?

We continue to evaluate the efforts that have been made. All of this depends on the volume and sustainability of these efforts. DKI Jakarta institutions, ministries, and regional governments continue to coordinate to find solutions. The Minister of Environment and Forestry contacted me, asking whether conditions had changed. He then coordinated with the President regarding this issue. So, we all continue to work so that this problem can be resolved. It is estimated that the new rainy season will occur in October.

Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati emphasized that all parties must share responsibility for poor air quality. (Photo Savic Rabos, DI Raga VOI)

You say that everyone should take responsibility for dealing with pollution. From the community, what can they do?

We ask the public to reduce the use of private vehicles and switch to available mass transportation. For Jakarta, various relatively adequate transportation alternatives are available, such as the MRT, TransJakarta, Commuter Line, and the recently opened Jabodebek LRT. If someone has to use a private vehicle, they must be prepared to take an emissions test for the common good. Another alternative is to use an electric vehicle or environmentally friendly vehicle. Apart from that, people must avoid burning rubbish carelessly. Apart from causing air pollution, especially in dry conditions like today, this can cause fires. Recently, a photo shoot with a flare wedding caused the savanna in the Mount Bromo area to catch fire.

Can current air pollution be prevented?

Yes, all the necessary regulations already exist, we just have to apply them. Apart from that, the community must also play an active role according to their respective abilities and roles.

What about PLTU (Steam Power Plant)?

From satellite observations, we have informed the Minister of Environment and Forestry about this problem. The contribution from this PLTU is less than 10 percent, still below the very massive transportation sector on weekdays. As a slightly lesser problem than PLTUs, industry also contributes to air pollution. The long-term solution is a change from fossil energy to new and renewable energy. Our lifestyle must also be more disciplined, including in terms of disposing of waste properly and avoiding burning waste.

How does BMKG deal with the El Niño phenomenon?

BMKG has identified the potential for El Niño to occur at the end of 2022. We have conveyed this information to the President, relevant Ministries, Governors throughout Indonesia, and the public. The impact of El Niño is very low rainfall, which is expected to occur at the end of June and early July, although it will not be evenly distributed throughout Indonesia. The rainy season is expected to occur in October or November. Drought is expected to cause forest fires. BMKG, Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing (PUPR), BRIN, and related agencies have carried out weather engineering in areas that often experience forest and land fires. We have prepared ourselves to face a situation similar to the 2019 phenomenon, and it is not expected to be worse than 2015. Since February, we have been carrying out climate field training for farmers throughout Indonesia. Together with the Department of Agriculture, we help farmers to understand weather and climate information and determine suitable crops for cultivation.

Recently, Central Papua experienced a drought. Does this have any correlation with the El Niño predictions that have been made?

There is no El Niño phenomenon in the area, it is already dry. The presence of El Niño makes the drought even worse. This information has been conveyed since the beginning of 2023, and should be anticipated, although sometimes there are unexpected factors in the field. Maybe it needs to be evaluated so that it doesn't happen again in the future.

Any disaster is in Indonesia; people say we are a "disaster supermarket". How is public awareness of this?

Compared before 2005 to now, there has been a very significant increase in awareness. The peak of our failure was when the large tsunami occurred in Aceh in 2004. We were not prepared, there was no early warning. After that we rose; In 2007, the Disaster Management Law was passed. In 2009, Law No. 31 concerning Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics was ratified. At that time, disaster issues were also included in the elementary school curriculum. So, public awareness is relatively good.

In the city of Palu, it has actually been prepared to deal with earthquakes and tsunamis. Data from 2001 already shows that Palu is prone to tsunamis. BNPB, Bappenas, and local universities have prepared residents to face these conditions. Lecturers are sent abroad to learn about disaster mitigation. Disaster-prone maps and evacuation routes have also been created. BMKG also conducts research on land shifts. The Donggala Regency Government even changed its office construction plans after receiving input from us. However, until 2014, there had been no damaging earthquakes or tsunamis there. Leaders who had previously been trained to deal with disasters had moved to other divisions. In 2018, when everyone had forgotten, a big earthquake and tsunami came to Palu.

What lessons can be learned from this case in Palu?

The key word is sustainability, which is very important. That every time there is a change in leadership, the disaster care program must continue. If the previous leader has not achieved perfection, the task of the next leader is to continue and perfect the program. A good example is West Sumatra, they always have an ongoing disaster care program. Bali and DIY are also the same, their disaster care programs also continue.

Earthquakes, floods, and so on are disasters; how to optimize them for studies and research?

Every disaster that occurs is not enough to just mourn or provide assistance to the affected residents. There must be a lesson to be learned. Why were there so many victims? Buildings must be earthquake-resistant, and insurance that can cover disasters must be considered. Researchers and experts can learn from what has happened. The hope is that they will find technological findings or products that can be implemented to minimize casualties when a disaster occurs.

I once researched landslides, and from that research, we developed early warning technology for landslides. This technology has been installed from Aceh to Papua. In fact, Myanmar, Vietnam, and America have purchased this technology for use in their countries. Japan also used our technology when helping Nepal. This means that behind disasters, there are things that can be discovered.

What advice do you have for society to be more concerned about disasters?

Based on data from BNPB, 95 percent of disasters that occur are hydrometeorological disasters. As the earth's temperature increases, hydrometeorological disasters will occur more frequently. El Nino and La Nina before 1980 occurred every five to seven years. After that, BMKG data showed that this phenomenon occurred once every three to five years. Even La Nina occurs every year.

BMKG predictions predict that the earth's temperature at the end of the 21st century will increase by up to 3.5 degrees Celsius compared to the era before industry existed. Surface air temperatures in Indonesia and the world have risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius. When the temperature rise was only 1.1 degrees and then just 1.2 degrees, the disaster was like now. What if it rises by 3 or 3.5 degrees Celsius? That is three times as much as now. We will feel sorry for our children and grandchildren if we leave the earth like this.

Hopefully, this condition can make us all aware, right?

Yes, even the World Meteorological Organization estimates that in the 2050s there will be a food crisis. Because the increasing rate of drought will disrupt agriculture, food production will be disrupted. This is because greenhouse gas emissions have jumped, this happens because of our activities. From vehicles, industry, and others. Therefore, we all must care, not be indifferent. Lifestyles that increase the earth's temperature must be abandoned. The use of environmentally friendly energy (EBT) must be promoted. If we don't care, everyone will feel the impact.

Dwikorita Karnawati, Always Cautious and Alert When People Are Resting

In the future, said the Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati, the transformation of fossil energy into Renewable energy is a necessity, non-negotiable. (Photo Savic Rabos, DI Raga VOI)

There is no day without alert, maybe that is what the Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Prof. Ir. Dwikorita Karnawati, MSc, PhD does. The problem is that there is no schedule for natural disasters. Sometimes it happens on weekdays and other times on weekends. When everyone is on holiday, she and her staff must be ready to face the impact of the disaster that occurs.

Even though she is busy with various tasks as a bureaucrat now, and previously as a lecturer and researcher, Prof. Rita, as she is often called, still tries out sports sessions. “Even though you are busy, you must still do exercise to maintain your body's health. It doesn't need to be expensive, the important thing is stretching, exercising, and walking. All of this costs almost nothing, basically it's cheap but the results are healthy," said this woman who was born in Yogyakarta, on June 6, 1964.

It's not that she doesn't want to do special exercise or entertain herself just to relax from her work routine. However, she has been committed since being appointed as Head of BMKG in 2017 to always be ready to provide assistance when disaster strikes. “The disaster came suddenly. Sometimes on weekdays and sometimes on weekends when many people are on holiday. If there is a report of a natural disaster in an area, I must be ready to help," said the woman who once served as Chancellor of Gadjah Mada University.

Because of the condition of always having to be alert, Rita said, she also adapted to the sports activities she was involved in. “When I go to the field, I use it for exercise. The problem is that if you check the field you have to cover difficult terrain, sometimes you have to climb mountains and walk through valleys. If that's the case, I consider the activity like exercising while working," said the UGM Professor of Environmental Geology and Disaster Mitigation.

Don't Overdo It

Being the Head of BMKG, Dwikorita Karnawati sometimes has to sacrifice her holiday time. Because natural disasters can occur during holidays. (Photo Savic Rabos, DI Raga VOI)

In fact, Rita really likes food that people say is delicious. However, she has to limit it so she can still work and carry out activities well. “Usually food that people say is delicious tends to be unhealthy. I'm not too strict, the important thing is not to overdo the intake of delicious food. The problem is, if you overdo it, you won't be able to work," said Dwikorita Karnawati.

What is non-negotiable for Rita is cleanliness. “For me, cleanliness is the most important thing. Because of that, I have to really check the food I am going to eat," said Rita, whose research on Community-Based Landslide Early Warning Systems at the Institute for Advanced Studies, Bristol University, England in 2003 received much praise. In fact, the technology has been used in many countries to reduce the impact of disasters.

Due to not paying attention or being a little careless in matters of food hygiene, she once experienced diarrhea while monitoring an area affected by a disaster. "I once experienced an unpleasant incident because the food I ate was not clean. Finally, I got diarrhea. If it's like that, it's actually troublesome and I can't work. I learned from that incident and then take proper care of the cleanliness of the food I eat," she explained.

Family's Support

Dwikorita Karnawati is grateful that her movements and steps as an academic and now a public official have received support from her family. (Photo Savic Rabos, DI Raga VOI)

Rita is grateful that her husband, Prof. Ir. Sigit Priyanto, MSc, Ph.D., who is also a professor at the same alma mater, provides full support for her activities as an academic, researcher, and now as a bureaucrat. “Since my children were small, I have invited them and been involved in what I do. When they were still breastfed, I took them to the laboratory. Sometimes from midnight to early morning, I push them using a stroller," she said.

So her children have been involved in her activities since they couldn't talk until now they have children. "This means that my children, from the time they couldn't speak until now they are married and have children, have also seen what their parents' lives are like. God willing, they will understand how busy their mother and father are," she said.

For Rita, wanting to play with her grandchildren doesn't need to be planned. "The problem is that if you plan it, it sometimes goes wrong. The reason is none other than my activities and duties as Head of BMKG, which means I must always be alert. As long as I have time to play with my grandchildren, I do. When there are more important activities such as a disaster that strikes, I have to focus on the events that are happening. Playing with my grandchildren has been postponed for now," she admitted.

Another healthy tip from Dwikorita Karnawati is to carry out your obligations as a Muslim woman well. “When we pray we maintain physical and spiritual health. When we pray we take a break from our work routine. My personal experience is that after praying I feel relaxed. Listening to religious lectures via cyberspace also increases my motivation to do good deeds," she said, ending the conversation.

"The key word is sustainability, that is very important. Every time there is a change in leadership, the disaster care program must continue. If the previous leader has not achieved perfection, the next leader's job is to continue and improve the program,"

Dwikorita Karnawati