Today's Rupiah Is Expected To Weaken Limited Amid US Dollar Strengthening

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading on Wednesday, December 10, is estimated to weaken to a limited US dollar (US).

Citing Bloomberg data, Tuesday, December 9, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange closed higher by 0.12 percent to the level of Rp. 16,676 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.07 percent to a price level of IDR 16,677 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong explained that the rupiah has the potential to weaken in line with the strengthening of the US dollar after releasing data on higher job vacancies than projections.

Even so, he considered that the weakening would not be significant because the market was still waiting for Indonesia's retail sales data and the results of the FOMC meeting tonight.

"Rupiah is expected to weaken against the stronger US dollar after US Job Data Jolt is stronger than expected. However, the weakening will be limited, with investors still waiting and seeing Indonesia's retail sales data and of course FOMC tonight," he told VOI, Wednesday, December 10.

Meanwhile, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the expectations of cutting the Fed interest rate by 25 basis points are still strong.

According to him, currently, the futures market considers there is an opportunity of around 87 percent that the US central bank will begin to relax its policies by December 10, driven by optimism for declining inflation and supporting labor data.

However, he noted that some investors remain cautious because of a cautious statement from Fed officials highlighting uncertainty regarding US economic resilience.

According to him, this condition opens up the possibility of a cycle of decreasing interest rates that is more gradual or even delayed.

Ibrahim explained that today's market focus is focused on US labor data ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.

"The four-week average ADP Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings for September and October will be in the main spotlight. If the results are weaker than expected, this could increase expectations of lowering US interest rates," he said in his statement, quoted Wednesday, December 10.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, December 10 in the price range of IDR 16,670 - IDR 16,710 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Lukman projects that the movement of the rupiah on Wednesday, December 10, will move in the range of Rp16,600 per US dollar to Rp16,700 per US dollar.