Indonesia's Trade Balance Surplus September 2025 Is Expected To Shrink

Trade Balance (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Indonesia's trade balance surplus in September 2025 is expected to experience a sharp decline compared to the previous month.

Head of the Macroeconomic & Financial Market Research Department, Permata Bank Permata Institute for Economic Research (PIER) Faisal Rachman estimates that the trade surplus in September 2025 will only reach 3.19 billion US dollars, or down from 5.49 billion US dollars in August 2025.

"Indonesia's trade surplus is expected to narrow in September 2025, driven by the sloping export performance and the recovery of imported activities," he said in his statement, Friday, October 31.

He added that weakening monthly exports and strengthening imports were the main causes of the surplus shrinkage. Even so, Indonesia still recorded a trade surplus for 65 consecutive months.

In terms of exports, annual growth is estimated to reach 7.72 percent year on year (yoy) in September 2025, or up from 5.78 percent (yoy) in August. However, monthly, exports are projected to fall 4.83 percent month to month (mtm).

The monthly export in September 2025 is expected to contract, reflecting the normalization of shipments to the US following the implementation of the reciprocal rate in August 2025, "he explained.

Faisal said that downstream industries such as iron and steel are still the main pillars of exports, while the increase in crude palm oil (CPO) prices also provides additional encouragement.

He added that exports to China are also expected to increase in line with the increase in imports of the country from Indonesia by 12.42 percent (mtm). On the other hand, exports to the US and Japan may fall, mainly due to the normalization of trade activities after the new tariff determination.

On the other hand, imports are projected to grow 9.28 percent (yoy) in September 2025, reversing from a 6.56 percent contraction (yoy) in August, and an increase of 5.63 percent (mtm) on a monthly basis.

According to Faisal, the increase in imports is in line with the strengthening of the domestic manufacturing sector, as reflected in the Indonesian Manufacturing PMI which was again above level 50 in August 2025.

"In addition, data from the Ministry of Finance shows that import duties will increase by around 5.77 percent (mom) in September 2025," he concluded.