JAKARTA - Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, said pressure on economic growth is very likely if the surge in daily COVID-19 cases continues.
In a tough scenario, economic growth is projected to only reach a maximum level of 3.7 percent this year.
This condition is likely to be faced by Indonesia if the spread of COVID-19 continues to peak until more than the second week of July 2021 which is then followed by the extension of social restrictions until the third week of August.
"In this situation, the pace of the economy is relatively slower", she said in a webinar organized by Bisnis Indonesia, Wednesday, July 7.
The Minister of Finance added that it is believed that the pace of recovery will only occur at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2021, which means it has entered the end of the year.
As for the moderate or mild scenario, the daily case rate should not continue to peak until the second week of this month.
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In addition, strict social restrictions are in effect until the first week of August. If this happens, then the rate of recovery can already be felt in the same month.
"In a moderate scenario, annual economic growth could reach the level of 4.5 percent", said the Minister of Finance.
For information, the government itself has set this year's economic growth to be in the range of 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent. This target was made by the government at the beginning of the year before the COVID-19 spike in the first half of 2021.
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