JAKARTA - Currency and digital asset market observer, Ibrahim Assuaibi, assessed that the current weakening of the crypto market is influenced by increasing global uncertainty, especially due to the heating of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East region.
He explained that since cryptocurrencies are recognized as one of the investment instruments, the movement of their value is now increasingly influenced by global fundamental factors, similar to commodities such as gold.
Citing Coingecko data, total crypto market capitalization fell 20.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026, where as of March 31 it was recorded at US$2.4 trillion. This figure even fell 45 percent from its peak level in October 2025.
Meanwhile, the average daily trading activity of global crypto assets also fell to 117.8 billion US dollars, corrected by 27 percent QoQ (Quarter-on-Quarter).
Ibrahim said one of the main factors that pressured the market was the failure to reach an agreement between the United States and Iran, especially regarding the issue of uranium enrichment and the stability of strategic areas such as the Strait of Hormuz.
He explained that the uncertainty encouraged the strengthening of the US dollar as a safe haven asset, and as a result, risky assets such as cryptocurrencies were under pressure.
In addition, Ibrahim also conveyed the potential for conflicts involving the United States, Iran, and its allies also triggered the rise in world oil prices.
"The impact of rising oil prices will definitely be inflation, if inflation is high, then it means that global central banks will definitely maintain interest rates or raise interest rates, well, the impact of this inflation, what will it do? Expensive prices. Well, these expensive prices are finally used as an excuse for crypto assets to experience corrections," he explained, Wednesday, April 22.
He added that the correction not only occurred in crypto, but also in various other commodities such as gold and silver, and this shows that the pressure comes from global sentiment broadly, not specific factors in crypto alone.
"The impact of the war in the Middle East which resulted in rising oil prices, high inflation, which made risky assets such as this crypto asset undergo a correction," he said.
Furthermore, Ibrahim emphasized that the global nature of the crypto market makes its movement influenced by international dynamics, including in Indonesia.
According to him, in uncertain conditions like today, investors tend to avoid risk (risk-off) and choose safer instruments such as the US dollar.
He added that the uncertainty of the direction of negotiations between the United States and Iran was one of the main factors that prompted the shift.
"Because, the uncertainty about the issue of negotiations between Iran and America is what makes people inclined to invest that fund in the US dollar because the US dollar itself until now the rupiah continues to experience weakness," he said.
Furthermore, Ibrahim emphasized that the crypto market is global, so international dynamics also affect transactions and prices around the world, including Indonesia.
"Including Indonesia, all global markets including Indonesia which affect the price of cryptocurrencies are corrected so all, not in America, not in Indonesia. If crypto assets are global," he said.
Looking ahead, he said the prospects for cryptocurrencies depend heavily on the development of the geopolitical situation and if peace is achieved between the conflicting countries, the market has the potential to strengthen again.
Ibrahim said that on the contrary, if tensions continue, volatility and price pressure are expected to continue.
"If there is peace now, it means that the community will focus on the trade war in July. Well, this will make the price of crypto assets also rise, just wait for the time," he explained.
Ibrahim also assessed that the opportunity for strengthening cryptocurrencies remains open, especially if tensions ease and market focus returns to other economic issues such as global trade wars.
However, he reminded that as long as there is no clarity regarding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the movement of crypto prices will still tend to be fluctuating.
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