Economic Growth In The Second Quarter Of 2025 Becomes A Surprise Amid Consumption Pressure

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced Indonesia's economic growth of 5.12 percent on an annual basis or year on year (yoy) in the second quarter of 2025.

Apindo Economic Policy Analyst Ajib Hamdani said this growth figure was beyond the predictions of economists and the business world.

He conveyed that the previous prediction was that economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 was only in the range of 4.69 percent to 4.81 percent.

"On an annual cycle, the second quarter is usually lower than the first quarter's economic growth supported by public spending in the Eid period," he told VOI, Wednesday, August 6.

He explained, as a comparison, the first quarter of 2024 was 5.11 percent, followed by economic growth in the second quarter of 5.05 percent.

According to him, with data on economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 of 4.87 percent, economists predict economic growth will tend to be even lower in the second quarter.

Ajib said this was also supported by the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector which experienced contraction throughout the quarter where in April 2025 the Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 46.7. The deepest consistency since the last 4 years

Kemudian pada Mei 2025 mengalami peningkatan indeks menjadi 47,4 dan di Juni 2025 kembali mengalami penurunan menjadi sebesar 46,9.

"Data konstraksi PMI Manufaktur ini juga relevan dengan potret di lapangan, terjadi fenomena rombongan jarang beli (rojali) dan rombongan hanya nanya-nanya (rohana). Padahal daya beli dan konsumsi ini yang menjadi penopang signifikan pertumbuhan ekonomi," ujarnya.

Ajib menjelaskan, jika dari pernyataan BPS, ada dua hal yang mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup eskalatif di kuartal kedua 2025 yaitu karena faktor investasi yang tumbuh secara signifikan sebesar 6,99 persen, level tertinggi selama 4 tahun terakhir, terutama karena proyek infrastruktur.

Adapun pada kuartal kedua realisai investasi mencapai Rp477,7 triliun, dengan rasio 57,7 persen dari Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) dan 42,3 persen dari Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA).

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Then in May 2025, the index increased to 47.4 and in June 2025 again decreased to 46.9.

"This data on the contraction of PMI Manufacturing is also relevant to portraits in the field, there is a phenomenon that groups rarely buy (rojali) and entourages only ask (rohana). Even though this purchasing power and consumption are significant pillars of economic growth," he said.

Ajib explained, from the BPS statement, there are two things that encourage fairly escalative economic growth in the second quarter of 2025, namely because of the investment factor which grew significantly by 6.99 percent, the highest level in the last 4 years, mainly due to infrastructure projects.

Meanwhile, in the second quarter, the investment realization reached IDR 477.7 trillion, with a ratio of 57.7 percent of Domestic Investment (PMDN) and 42.3 percent of Foreign Investment (PMA).

Berikutnya faktor kebijakan moneter, yang membuat relaksasi tingkat suku bunga acuan turun 25 basis point pada Bulan Mei 2025, menjadi 5,5 persen.

Dia menjelaskan, kebijakan ini cukup menambah likuiditas di sistem perekonomian sebesar 375 triliun lewat relaksasi cadangan.

"Kebijakan ini diharapkan bisa berlanjut memberikan dampak positif pada kuartal ketiga, karena pada awal Juli, Bank Indonesia (BI) kembali menurunkan tingkat suku bunga acuan menjadi 5,25 persen," tuturnya.

Next is the monetary policy factor, which makes the relaxation of the benchmark interest rate drop by 25 basis points in May 2025, to 5.5 percent.

He explained that this policy would increase liquidity in the economic system by 375 trillion through reserve relaxation.

"This policy is expected to continue to have a positive impact in the third quarter, because in early July, Bank Indonesia (BI) again lowered the benchmark interest rate to 5.25 percent," he said.