CORE Predicts Indonesia's Economic Growth In The Range Of 4.9-5.1 Percent In The First Quarter Of 2024

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Indonesia's Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) optimized Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2024 to reach 4.9-5.1 percent.

"We from CORE Indonesia make calculations, this estimate means that it has passed because the first quarter took place in January-March, but the count is quick (fast). Our estimate is that in the first quarter of 2024, Indonesia's economic growth rate may be around 4.9-5.1 percent," said Research Director of Macroeconomics Core Indonesia Akbar Susanto in "Core Quarterly Review 2024: Economic Challenges in the Middle of Government Transition" virtually in Jakarta, quoted from Antara, Thursday 25 April.

Furthermore, there are a number of considerations why economic growth in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated at 4.9-5.1 percent.

Judging from the driving factor, the implementation of general elections (elections) is the cause of economic growth because it drives household consumption to the consumption of non-profit institutions that serve households (LNPRT).

In addition, Ramadan is also the momentum of the community to travel more so that spending is more abundant.

The suppressing factor from Indonesia's economic growth is that Indonesia's exports have experienced a sharp decline due to the increase in oil and gas commodity prices and the decline in demand for strategic commodities.

Then, also the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate and the increase in world commodity prices which suppressed imports in the first quarter of 2024.

"So, there is that combination, but with this combination based on our calculations, it is still possible that Indonesia will grow 4.9-5.1 (percent). This value is actually not bad when compared to what is projected during 2024," he said.

In November 2023, it is said that his party conveyed the outlook for the Indonesian economy in 2024, which is projected to grow 4.9-5.0 percent.

"Now we are 4.9-5.1 percent, which means we say that the lower limit is the same, but the limit may still be more than what we project for the 2024 period," said Akbar.