Despite Food Inflation, The Indonesian Economy In The First Quarter Of 2024 Is Predicted To Be Saved By THR To Increase Salaries

Illustration of Rupiah (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Head of Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede said the faster circulation of money will move the wheels of the economy ahead of Eid and it is estimated that it will be able to boost economic growth by 0.14 - 0.25 percent point (ppt).

"So we still see that in the first quarter of 2024, Indonesia's economy has the opportunity to grow in the range of 5 percent 5.1 percent," he explained to VOI, Thursday, April 4.

Josua said there were several factors that encouraged Indonesia's economic growth amid the increasing price of goods and food during Ramadan. One of the factors is the increase in government spending, especially related to social assistance and the implementation of elections.

According to Josua, this is reflected in state spending until March 15, 2024, up 18.1 percent on an annual basis or year on year (yoy), and there is a low-base effect from the first quarter of 2023.

"Because the longest period of Ramadan shifted from April last year (triwulan 2) to March this year (triwulan 1)," he explained.

Josua did not deny that it is true that inflation is in an increasing trend because rising food prices can be an obstacle to economic growth in the first quarter of 2024 because it can disrupt people's purchasing power.

However, according to Josua, THR factors, bonuses, and salary increases can reduce purchasing power due to inflation, especially for the middle income group.

Meanwhile, Deputy Chairperson of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Regional Autonomy Development, Sarman Simanjorang, said that the number of travelers in 2023 reached 123.8 million people, an increase of 14.2 percent from 2022, while in 2024, based on data from the Ministry of Transportation, the number of travelers is estimated at 193.6 million people or 71.7 percent of the total population of Indonesia.

"The increase in the number of travelers will increase the increase in the circulation of money in all corners of the country, especially for homecoming destinations and tourist destinations," he said in an official statement, quoted on Friday, March 29.

Sarman assumes, with the number of travelers reaching 193.6 million people, if the average number per family is four people, then the number of travelers is equivalent to 48.4 million families.

Jaika each family is assumed to have brought an average of IDR 3,250,000, so the circulation of money during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1445 H this year is estimated at IDR 157.3 trillion.

"This number still has the potential to increase, because we multiply the minimum or moderate number," he said.

Sarman conveyed that the culture of going home to celebrate Eid al-Fitr with his family in his hometown is the largest means of money circulation in Indonesia, which is estimated to reach 25 percent every year.

"This turnaround will be able to increase household consumption, drive the regional economy and make a significant contribution to national economic growth," he explained.

Sarman hopes that this year's homecoming will run smoothly, safely, lively, full of memories, travelers can shop and travel while enjoying various culinary delights and MSME products.