Two Sentiments Haunting, Wednesday's JCI Continues to Weaken?

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is predicted to still be in the consolidation phase on Wednesday, August 9 trading, after dropping 0.25 percent or 17.55 points yesterday to 6,868.81.

Phintraco Sekuritas in his research said that today's JCI movement was influenced by two main sentiments. First, the realization of Indonesia's economic growth is far better than forecast in the second quarter of 2023.

Indonesia's GDP grew 5.17 percent YoY in the second quarter of 2023, up from 5.04 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2023 and much better than the estimate of 4.93 percent YoY. Thus, it has been two consecutive quarters that the realization of economic growth has been above expectations.

"However, there is a weighting sentiment from China today, namely China's export and import data contracted to 14.5 percent YoY and 1.4 percent YoY in July 2023," explained research by Phintraco Sekuritas.

Further mention of the research, today there is a narrowing of the positive slope between MA20 and MA50 which indicates a consolidation phase.

Despite the correction in today's movement, there is a chance for a short-term rebound. JCI rebound potential is supported by oversold indications on the Stochastic RSI.

JCI is expected to rebound to 6,880-6,900 on Wednesday trading. The market seems to be responding to the realization of Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) to 123.5 in July 2023, from the previous 127.1 in June 2023.

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Despite falling, Indonesia's CCI is still far above the confidence limit, which is 100. Thus, external factors are expected to give negative sentiment to the JCI movement tomorrow.

"First, China recorded a decline in the value of exports of 14.5 percent YoY and imports of 12.4 percent YoY in July 2023. Second, German inflation was realized at 6.2 percent YoY in July 2023, down slightly from 6.4 percent YoY in June 2023," explained Phintraco Sekuritas' research.

The three stocks recommended by Phintraco Sekuritas today are ARTO, MIKA and BANK.