Flashback Of The 2022 State Budget: Nine Months Of Surfing Becomes A Face Of Gejolak 2023

Illustration (Photo: Doc. Ministry of Finance)

JAKARTA The journey of state finances throughout 2022 is dominated by a number of positive stories. This was recorded in the report on the realization of the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) as reported by the Ministry of Finance.

It was stated that the agency led by Sri Mulyani started a slick play in January 2022. At that time, the APBN recorded a surplus of IDR 28.8 trillion. This book occurred because of a higher income value of IDR 156 trillion compared to spending of IDR 127.1 trillion

"The realization of the state budget until January 31, 2022, recorded a surplus of 0.16 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This is much better than the same period in 2021, which at that time was a deficit of 0.27 percent of GDP," said Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani some time ago.

Continuing to February 2022, another surplus occurred even though the value was sloping to IDR 19.7 trillion. According to the state treasurer, this achievement is much different if we compare it with February 2021, which has a deficit of IDR 63.3 trillion.

Then, in March 2022, the government informed that the state budget was in a surplus position of IDR 10.3 trillion, the proceeds from revenue of IDR 501 trillion compared to state expenditures of IDR 490.6 trillion.

"That's the story about the APBN which of course should not make us complacent because even though the results are very good, the risk is still high," said the Minister of Finance.

Then, in April 2022 the APBN posture made brilliant results with surplus lessons to Rp103.1 trillion. This moncer performance cannot be separated from the strong state revenue, which is supported by trends in commodity prices, export and import activities, and then recover household consumption.

The condition of the state budget is very good. We will use this entire surplus to become a shock absorber of current shocks, both from pandemics and commodities," he said.

In the May 2022 period, fiscal instruments successfully maintained a surplus trend. In fact, in that month the state budget was getting stronger with a budget posture of IDR 132.2 trillion. It is explained that this is supported by a larger state revenue with IDR 1,070.4 trillion in terms of expenditure of IDR 938.2 trillion.

This is an extraordinary reversal of fiscal. Imagine in May 2021 we have a deficit of IDR 219.2 trillion", said the Minister of Finance.

At the close of the first semester, or to be precise in June 2022, the value of the surplus of the landslide APBN reached IDR 73.6 trillion. VOI noted that during that period the government began to optimize the funds obtained to withstand price shocks due to fluctuations in energy and food commodities.

"We need to increase caution about the sustainability of rising commodity prices in the future," continued the Minister of Finance.

Entering the second half, the state's financial condition was again included in the upward surplus trend. At that time, the APBN recorded a positive difference of IDR 106.1 trillion at the end of July 2022 or equivalent to 0.57 percent of GDP.

The state treasurer stated that this is an important capital to reduce the budget deficit and is expected to be lower than the target of Presidential Regulation 98/2022 of 4.5 percent of GDP.

Switching to the August period, the surplus has not broken. In fact, the value moved up even though it was thin to Rp107.4 trillion. At that time, the government began sounding to pay subsidies and compensation to two SOEs, namely Pertamina and PLN.

In September 2022, the APBN surplus fell again. This time it was reduced to IDR 60.9 trillion. In his explanation, the Minister of Finance said that this was influenced by the optimization of fiscal instruments as a shock absorber, so that economic shocks were not immediately forwarded to the public.

"In the midst of various challenges, the performance of the state budget until September 2022 remains positive and under control," he said.

Entering October, the state budget recorded the first deficit after nine consecutive months of enjoying luxury. The Ministry of Finance reports that the posture of fiscal instruments has cost Rp169.5 trillion.

This figure occurs due to a higher total expenditure of IDR 2,351.1 trillion compared to the revenue side of IDR 2,181.6 trillion. The issue that surfaced at that time was that the government had just paid obligations to Pertamina and PLN of IDR 163 trillion.

"Fiscal performance (which is now a deficit) will encourage financing needs in the remainder of this year," he said.

Furthermore, in the latest APBN report submitted by Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani last week, it was revealed that the deficit had widened again to IDR 237.7 trillion or 1.22 percent of GDP. This figure is a recapitulation calculated until December 14, 2022.

In his statement, the Minister of Finance stated that the realization of the budget deficit ahead of the close of the year was quite good from the initial estimate of the 2022 State Budget in accordance with Presidential Decree 98/2022.

"This deficit is much smaller if the indication or plan for 2022, which reaches IDR 840.2 trillion (4.5 percent of GDP)," he said.

The government itself is optimistic that the 2022 State Budget can be closed with the realization of a budget deficit of 2.49 percent of GDP. If this happens, then this is an achievement in itself considering that next year the government has the mandate to bring the deficit back to a normal level below 3 percent after being widened due to the impact of COVID-19.

For information, the APBN structure is indeed compiled and ratified in a stuck condition. Why is that?

One of the main explanations is that Indonesia as a developing country requires a budget that tends to be higher than the revenue sector. The Minister of Finance himself emphasized that this was natural in order to accelerate stronger development.

"The performance of the APBN, which is generally quite good this year, will be our provision in dealing with turmoil in 2023," closed the Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani.