The Party's Over! The Windfall Effect Dims As Commodity Prices Slope

Illustration of an oil palm farmer (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA – The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) found that there was a decline in the prices of various leading commodities that had been supporting Indonesia's trade balance.

BPS Deputy for Distribution and Service Statistics Setianto said that this indication could be seen from the price tag of palm oil (CPO) which fell almost minus 30 percent month to month (mtm) to 1.056 dollars per metric ton in July 2020.

The same thing also happened to nickel, which fell by minus 16 percent mtm to 21.500 dollars per metric ton.

"Only coal still shows an increase of 7.5 percent from last month to 306.4 dollars per metric ton in July 2022," he said when holding a press conference on Monday, August 15.

According to Setianto, crude oil fell by minus 10 percent mtm to 105 dollars per barrel and natural gas fell by minus 5 percent to 7.3 dollars per mmbtu.

“This is what we may need to be aware of in relation to price changes. The decline in the prices of our main export commodities, such as CPO, should be our concern and could be a sign of the end of the windfall effect,” he stressed.

This pressure signal was confirmed by BPS data which stated that the export value in July 2022 was USD 25.5 billion or lower than June 2022 which was USD 26.1 billion.

This result helped reduce the trade surplus to USD 4.3 billion last month compared to June's surplus of USD 5.1 billion.

According to VOI's records, the positive effect of the windfall in the first half of 2022 has also succeeded in making the APBN experience a budget surplus of Rp. 73.6 trillion.

In fact, as of July, the state's financial instruments continued the encouraging trend with a budget surplus of around IDR 106 trillion.

Along with the strengthening of pressure on various Indonesia's leading commodities, it is estimated that the pace of the economy going forward will be more challenging.