Indonesia Heading To A Tsunami COVID-19 Like India? Epidemiologist's Predictions Are More Severe

Crowd illustration of Tanah Abang Market (Source: Antara)

JAKARTA - Three residents of Banten were confirmed positive for the COVID-19 virus, the Indian strain B117, and the British strain B117. This finding raises concerns that Indonesia will suffer a fate like India's. Epidemiologists even describe, in Indonesia, these two strains of the virus will cause more chaos than in India.

Head of the Banten Provincial Health Office, Dr. Ati Pramudji Hastuti, revealed that one case of exposure to B117 British strain was in Mekar Baru District, Tangerang Regency. Meanwhile, two cases of B117 Indian strain infected in North Serpong District, South Tangerang City.

Ati explained that two patients in South Tangerang were exposed to the Indian strain of the coronavirus from their son who lives in Jakarta. Meanwhile, the patient in Tangerang contracted the British coronavirus strain from his trip to Saudi Arabia.

Two South Tangerang patients are currently being treated at the Hermina Hospital. Meanwhile, "the case in Tangerang Regency is undergoing special isolation, under the supervision of the Puskesmas because it has mild symptoms", said Ati, Wednesday, May 5.

The COVID-19 Task Force has taken samples from colleagues and families of patients who are suspected of having close contact. "Follow-tracing measures have been performed on close contact for the two strains", Ati.

Conceded

The government's attitude which is still open to the arrival of foreign nationals is questionable. An epidemiologist from Griffith University, Australia, Dicky Budiman said that Indian or British strains entered Indonesia at least one or two months ago.

"According to the probability, at least one or two months it already exists because we are not a closed country. Including India, this is also a long time. From October, the explosion of April", Dicky told VOI, Thursday, May 6.

Dicky's estimate fits with what was conveyed by the Ministry of Health today, Thursday, May 6. Director of Prevention and Control of Direct Communicable Diseases of the Ministry of Health, Siti Nadia Tarmizi, said that currently there are 59 travelers from India who have entered Indonesia and tested positive for COVID-19.

Director of Prevention and Control of Direct Communicable Diseases of the Ministry of Health, Siti Nadia Tarmizi (Source: Special)

Of that number, 49 are Indian citizens. Meanwhile, ten others are Indonesian citizens.

"As it is known that from the period 28 December 2020 to 25 April 2021 we received 59 positive cases from travelers from India", Nadia said in a video containing a press statement.

According to Nadia, 26 of the 49 Indians who tested positive for COVID-19 have been sampled for whole-genome sequencing (WGS). This was done to find out what virus had infected them.

"We are currently still waiting for the results of the examination of these specimens, both the positive ones and the specimens that were sampled in the previous period", said Nadia.

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The spread of the new variant of the coronavirus in Indonesia

Tuesday, May 4, one day before the announcement of the three cases in Banten and the announcement of 59 Indian travelers, the Ministry of Health also announced what new variants of the coronavirus had entered Indonesia. There are B117 British strains, B117 Indian strains.

Another strain is B1351 South Africa. Siti Nadia Tarmizi, who is also the vaccination spokesperson for the Ministry of Health, said that these three strains have caused the spike in COVID-19 cases in several countries in the world. Human mobility triggers the distribution of the three variants.

Illustration of airplane passenger photo (Rudy Dong / Unsplash)

"There are three types of variants that are classified with the variant of concern or VOC to watch out for, namely B117, B1351, and variant B1617. This B117 variant is known to have a higher transmission rate of around 36 to 75% compared to the previously circulating virus, "he said, in a virtual press conference.

The British variant, B117 is the most widely reported country in the world. The World Health Organization recorded an increase in cases of up to 49 percent related to the circulation of variant B117 in Southeast Asia.

The Ministry of Health website details the distribution of the three variants of the coronavirus in Indonesia.

• Variant type B1617: One case in Riau Islands and one case in DKI Jakarta
• Variant type B117: Two cases in North Sumatra, one in South Sumatra, Banten (1 case), West Java (5), East Java (1), Bali (1), East Kalimantan (1)
• Variant type B1351: One case in Bali.

Illustration (CDC / Unsplash)

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Could be worse than India

Indonesia has the potential to experience a tsunami COVID-19 as experienced by India. Several things suggest that possibility. The first is behavior.

Indonesia and India have the same behavior, both the government and the people. Besides that, the clusters and cases that were not identified. This is a time bomb.

"The time bomb is like a time bomb, it is ready to explode because these undetected cases will expose the most vulnerable groups in society", Griffith University epidemiologist Dicky Budiman told VOI, Thursday, May 6.

As a result of the spread of the new variant of the coronavirus in Indonesia, it could be more serious than in India. Dicky said, in several ways, India was more advanced.

About the positivity rate, for example. India's mass test had reached a positivity rate of 5 percent. This will have an impact on how big the explosion of cases that occur in Indonesia will be.

Crowd illustration of Tanah Abang Market (Source: Antara)

"In fact, in some cases, Indonesia is more worrying. Among other things, for example, Indonesia is not as good as India in the positivity rate test", Dicky.

"We haven't been during the pandemic. India has. That is what made them popular at that time", he added.

There are several things that Indonesia can do to anticipate this. First, intensify the 3T strategy and vaccination.

"It must be done very optimally. At least adequate, but consistent. High commitment. Do not slack off, be complacent", Dicky.

Second, improving the behavior of public officials and the public themselves. "Don't be overly behaved. Don't be euphoric. You have to keep on guarding 5M."

"Then the last one, about the new variant, yes. Don't underestimate the new variant. In India, the new variant plays a role. So that's what we have to learn from."

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What's happening in India?

Today, Thursday morning, May 6, India has just broken another record of daily COVID-19 cases with a record of 412,262 thousand cases per day. India's Ministry of Health announced, with this addition, India's COVID-19 case record had reached 21.1 million throughout the pandemic period.

India also recorded 3,980 deaths in the past 24 hours. If you take it all the way through the pandemic, it means that 230,168 people in India have died from COVID-19.

India is having a hard time. The second wave hit them in the past month.

The bad news is that India will not reach the peak of the second wave in the coming weeks. This raises concerns about the health system.

Photo illustration (Source: Unsplash)

Since weeks ago, Indian hospitals have been overwhelmed by the number of patients who keep arriving. Many patients end up having to be treated on the street or discharged.

India is also experiencing an oxygen supply crisis. Aid from the United States, France, Russia, Britain, and many other countries appear unable to keep up with the needs. A government official told AFP India still needed large amounts of oxygen.

And the worst part of this is the continuation phase, which is the third wave. When the second wave is successfully overcome, India must prepare for the third wave. The government's science adviser, K. Vijay Raghavan said, with all the wretched things that have happened today, the test for India is far from over.

"The third wave cannot be avoided seeing how high the circulating virus is. However, it is not clear when this third wave will occur. We must prepare for this new wave", said Raghavan.

* Read other information about COVID-19 or read other interesting writings from Yudhistira Mahabharata.

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