Three Srikandis In The 2024 East Java Regional Head Election To Fight For Nahdliyin's Voice

General Chairperson of PP Muslimat Nahdlatul Ulama Khofifah Indar Parawansa when he was present as a speaker at the XVI Regional Conference of PW Fatayat NU. (ANTARA/HO-KIP Team)

JAKARTA Package incumbent Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Dardak is predicted to be difficult to stop, even though they are challenged by two no less tough heroines, Tri Rismaharini and Luluk Nur Hamidah in the election for Governor and Deputy Governor of East Java.

For the first time, the East Java Pilkada will become a political arena for three heroines to fight for a voter mass base. Political observer from Al-Azhar University Indonesia Andriadi Achmad believes that the incumbent of the Khofifah-Emil pair is a strong candidate to win the East Java Pilkada for the second time in a row. According to Andriadi, Khofifah's leadership in the past five years has received a positive impression among voters.

"The re-pair of a package of incumbent Cagub-Cawagub, Khofifah-Emil Dardak has become a point plus in itself. This shows the harmony of East Java's leadership in the past period," said Andriadi.

"Because it is a bit rare in the cagub-cawagub pair elections to reunite in the second period. Most of the partnerships between the incumbent cagub and the incumbent deputy governor in the second period, often even become rivals in the next election contestation," he added.

However, Dedi Kurnia Syah, a political analyst from the Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO), expressed a different opinion. He predicts that the East Java Pilkada battle will be fierce. The reason is, according to Dedi, Risma's figure has the potential to become an incumbent obstacle for Khofifah.

This is the second time Khofifah Indar Parawansa has paired up with Emil Dardak to run in the East Java Regional Election. But specifically for the former Minister of Social Affairs, the fight in the East Java gubernatorial election was quite close to him. Because before finally winning in 2018, Khofifah had lost twice against Soekarwo or Pakde Karwo in 2008 and 2013. Khofifah finally won the 2018 East Java Regional Election, 10 years after he first fought in East Java, when he was paired with celebrity husband Arumi Baschim.

After one term of leadership, the couple's electability is still at the top. According to the Kompas Research and Development survey, Khofifah is still a reference for residents as a candidate for the 2024 East Java Pilkada cagub.

The 59-year-old woman's electability is in first position with 26.8 percent, followed by Social Minister Risma with 13.6 percent. while the other two names, namely Emil Dardak and Siafullah Yusuf, were only selected less than four percent of respondents. 3.8 and 1.8 percent, respectively.

In addition to his status as incumbent and electability, Khofifah is also promoted by a fat coalition, similar to Ridwan Kamil-Suswono in Jakarta. The difference is, in East Java only minus PKB, who alone carries the couple Luluk Nur Hamidah and Lukmanul Khakim. Meanwhile, other rivals, Tri Rismahar and Zahrul Azhar, were promoted by PDIP.

The Pair Candidates for Governor and Candidate for Deputy Governor of East Java Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Elestianto Dardak boarded Uldaul Madura when registering at the local KPU, Surabaya (28/8/2024). (ANTARA/Willi Irawan/am)

This series of facts led the Executive Director of the PolCom SRC (Political Communication Studies and Research Center) Andriadi Achmad to believe that Khofifah was difficult to stop in the East Java gubernatorial election.

"Supported by KIM Plus minus PKB has shown a strength that may be difficult to overthrow. Apart from being promoted by a fat coalition, the legislative and executive flight hours are quite perfect and become a lucky Cagub Khofifah," Andriadi said when contacted by VOI.

"In realistic political calculations, it is difficult for me, both Risma and Luluk to beat Khofifah in the 2024 East Java gubernatorial election," he added.

Khofifah, said Andriadi, was relatively effective as a female politician, because she had a positive track record before finally becoming Governor of East Java. She was entrusted as Chair of the NU Muslimat (the wing of the largest Islamic Organization in Indonesia), Minister of Women's Empowerment and Child Protection during the Gus Dur era, Minister of Social Affairs in the Jokowi era, Member of the Indonesian Parliament and currently the Governor of East Java Incent.

A different opinion was expressed by IPO Executive Director Dedi Kurnia Syah. Risma's presence could potentially hamper the electoral performance of Khofifah, so it is not impossible for the Minister of Social Affairs to beat the incumbent.

The reason is because the sound from the Nahdliyin mass base will be divided, especially to Khofifah and Luluk. Meanwhile, for Risma, Nahdliyin's sound wave is difficult to predict because he is dominantly known as a pure bureaucrat who relies on personal performance.

"That should be more profitable because the sound will mingle into Risma without group affiliation," explained Dedi.

The three women who fought did have a relationship with NU. Khofifah is known as the General Chair of the NU Muslimat. Meanwhile, Luluk, a fairly senior politician in PKB, a political party that has a main supporter of the Nahdliyin people. In addition, a figure who was born in Jombang, one of the bases of Nahdliyin and NU figures. On the other hand, Risma is a descendant of the founder and kyai as NU, Mbah Jayadi. Mbah Jayadi's nasab line was found by Risma from his father's path. Mbah Jayadi is also known as one of Prince Diponegoro's combat soldiers.

The unharmony of PKB and PBNU that has resurfaced recently is said to be able to affect the split of votes in East Java. However, according to Andriadi Achmah, NU's vote has almost always been a struggle in every political contestation, not only due to the PBNU and PKB conflicts. This means that NU votes tend to be divided.

For example, in the 2004 straight presidential election. NU votes were divided among Megawati - Hasyim Muzadi (Tokoh NU), SBY - Jusuf Kalla (Tokoh NU), Wiranto - Solahudin Wahid (Tokoh NU) and Hamzah Haz (Tokoh NU) - Agum Gumelar. Even in the last presidential election, NU was divided into candidate pairs Anies - Cak Imin (Tokoh NU), Prabowo - Gibran, and Ganjar - Mahfud (Tokoh NU).

"Therefore, in the future NU votes will also tend to be divided both in the election and in the presidential election," he said.

Socio-political analyst from the Institute for Security and Strategic Studies (ISESS) Musfi Romdoni said that withdrawals will occur in all candidates for the East Java Cagub because the Nahdliyin have never had one vote. However, if you look at the current position, Khofifah in East Java is considered still a strong magnet for Nahdliyin voters.

Musfi added that he rarely heard the name Risma being associated with the Nahdliyin. Meanwhile, Luluk, the support of the Nahdliyin people will come through the nodes of sound that are already strongly intersecting with PKB.

"Since she was a student of Khofifah, she has been active in the Women's Islamic Student Movement Corps (Kopri). Khofifah is the General Chair of PP Muslimat Nahdlatul Ulama, the largest NU female organization. Even Khofifah's profile is written on NU Online, the official NU media," said Musfi.