Drama Pilkada Jakarta 2024: Investment In The Long-Term PDIP And Anies Baswedan Not Participated In The Political Stage

PDIP chairman Megawati Soekarnoputri together with the future governor and deputy governor candidates after giving a party decree at the PDI-P DPP Office, Jakarta, Monday (26/8/2024). (ANTARA/Hafiz Mubarak)

JAKARTA The PDI-P (PDIP) decision to carry out Pramono Anung-Rano Karno in the election of the Governor and Deputy Governor of Jakarta 2024-2029 was seen as negative for a number of circles. However, according to political observers, the party bearing the white-nosed bull logo is actually making long-term investments.

The Pramono-Rano Karno duet has registered them with the Jakarta KPUD office, Wednesday (28/8/2024, after the previous night being officially promoted by PDIP. Their arrival was also accompanied by Basuki Tjahaja Purnama alias Ahok and Secretary of the PDIP Regional Election Winning Team Aria Bima.

"I am Pramono Anung Wibowo and Rano Doel Karno registered as a candidate pair for governor and deputy governor of DKI Jakarta from the PDI-P," Pramono said after registering at the Jakarta KPUD office.

That PDIP finally gave its blessing to Pramono Anung, who is still serving as Secretary of President Joko Widodo's Cabinet, shocked many, especially from the party's own camp.

To VOI, a political observer from Al Azhar Indonesia University Andriadi Achmad said that PDIP would certainly have considered profit and loss in deciding to provide support, both in the presidential and regional elections. Based on that, Anies then had difficulty getting the supporting political parties.

In the 2024 presidential election, for example, Andriadi said, Anies did not provide benefits for the supporting parties, namely PKS, NasDem, and PKB.

From a political perspective, PDIP's decision to prefer Pramono over Anies is a long-term investment, as revealed by political communication analyst from the KedaiKOPI Survey Institute, Hendri Satrio. He suspects that there are motives, deals (certain deals) with the government, although he admits this is still just rumors.

The same thing was also expressed by the Executive Director of Algebra Strategic Indonesia, Arifki Chaniago. Although the installation of Pramono-Rano in the Jakarta Pilkada is illogical to fight Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, Arifki considers this a long-term negotiation from the PDIP.

As is known, PDIP was left alone by the Forward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) which carried Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka during the 2024 presidential election. KIM was also getting fatter with the addition of PKB, NasDem, and PKS who joined the Jakarta Pilkada.

"Of course there are many variables that will cause PDIP to count better in the future. The PDIP problem has been with Jokowi, not Prabowo," said Arifki.

"That Anies dropped, then there were long-term negotiations. Whether to enter the cabinet or others," he added.

Promulgate Anies is considered too risky for the red party. Because as is known, the former Governor of DKI Jakarta is not a cadre and does not necessarily want to'sequent' as Megawati asked. In addition, Anies also has a negative record with Prabowo.

Choosing Anies will also threaten the political constellation in 2029. If he sailed in the Jakarta Pilkada and finally won, he would become Prabowo's strong opponent, Gibran, Puan Maharani, including Ganjar Pranowo and Ahok in the 2029 presidential election. Therefore, turning off Anies' card earlier benefits all parties, both internally from PDIP and from other parties.

Then, why does PDIP not advance Ahok, whose electability is only inferior to Anies? It is believed that Arifti has the potential to worsen the relationship between PDIP and Prabowo-Gibran, because he is a symbol of resistance to the central government.

"I think the nomination of PDIP in Jakarta carries Pramono-Rano is a formality and respects cadres, and also so that PDIP is not divided to see long-term political communication with Prabowo-Gibran," said Arifki.

The 2024 Jakarta Pilkada should have become Anies' political stage before competing in the 2029 presidential election. Executive Director of the Voxpol Center Research and Consulting Pangi Syarwi Chaniago assessed that Anies still needed a stage to maintain electability until 2029.

"Anies must not dim his lights, he must still have a stage. This means that he must not stop, must not die as a politician is to have a position as governor," Pangi told VOI.

"By becoming governor, it means he has a program, keeping his electability good because he remains in the public spotlight," he said again.

Unfortunately, Anies failed to get the stage. After being unable to convince the party in the Jakarta Pilkada, Anies also failed to advance in the West Java Pilkada, a wild issue that had circulated during the closing of the elections.

Then, what are the choices that Anies has in the future? Hendri Satrio said that Anies has only two choices now.

Stop from politics and become a professional or continue to be political. For the second choice, Anies certainly needs to join the big party. However, Hendri noted that Anies could not hope to occupy a high position.

"Yes, you have to be ready to be in an ordinary position," he said.

On the other hand, Anies will also find it difficult to continue his political career if he joins middle parties such as PPP, PAN, and PKS. Because he has the potential to compete with the prestige of his party chairman, according to Hendri. Another option if you want to continue your career in politics, said Hendri, is to create your own party, even though this is a difficult choice.

Will Anies' absence from the 2024 Pilkada contestation immediately dim his name towards the upcoming presidential election?