Waiting For The Directions Of Undecided Voters In The 2024 Election

Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan during an idea dispute in the Third Debate of the 2024 General Election Candidate at Istora Senayan, Jakarta, Sunday (7/1/2024). (Between/Aditya Pradana Putra)

JAKARTA Donald Trump once reversed the ramulan' ahead of the 2016 United States presidential election. Eight years ago, Republican Trump defeated Democratic Party figure Hillary Clinton. This is somewhat surprising, because in the electability poll he lost to Clinton. Could this be a warning to the pair of Indonesian presidential candidates ahead of the 2024 election?

As is known, the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming pair is almost always in the first position of the electability survey, ahead of the pair Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD.

But a political analyst from Al Azhar University, Andriadi Achmad said, the survey is a small picture of most of the true voter reality. Massive dynamics and movements in candidates within a certain time will affect the survey results.

Ahead of the 2024 General Election which will be held on February 14, the undecided votersjustru group is increasing. This phenomenon was recorded in a field survey conducted independently by Litbang Kompas against 1,364 respondents from November 29, 2023 to December 4, 2023.

However, the undecidend voters do not only exist in the presidential election in Indonesia. In the 2016 United States Election, undecidend voters were said to be one of the causes of Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton.

The conclusion stems from the results of the presidential election which is not in accordance with the results of the poll. In a survey before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton outperformed Donald Trump in a state that became a battleground in determining the president. But in reality, it was Donald Trump from the Republican Party who came out victorious after defeating Hillary Clinton.

Nearly seven months after the election in Uncle Sam's country, a number of survey institutions are still looking for answers to questions that have shaken their trust in their profession.

According to The New York Times, there are at least two main types of errors that have arisen as the cause of pro-Clinton bias in the survey before the election. The first is the undecidend voters or voters who have yet to make a decision instead of choosing Trump in the final days of the election. The second possibility is that the number of voters among Trump supporters is higher than expected.

Meanwhile, at the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) annual conference and several meetings held in early 2017, they explained several things that might be the cause of Donald Trump's finally winning the presidential election despite losing the poll.

Through a post-Pemilu survey conducted by Pew Research and another survey by the Global Strategy Group, a Democratic Party company, they recalled people who had voted before the election, finding a number of interesting facts regarding Donald Trump's surprise victory over Hillary Clinton.

They found that voters who were hesitant and from small parties chose Trump by a sizeable margin, far more than usual, wrote The New York Times.

Trump supporters are suspected, when conducting a survey over their phones they feel ashamed to express their support for an unpopular candidate. If that's the case, then the hesitant voters or unfair voters are actually Trump voters. They just don't want to admit it to the survey institute until their candidate wins.

According to the Kompas Research and Development survey, the number of voters who made their choice in the 2024 General Election actually increased. A total of 24.9 percent of survey respondents answered they did not know, did not exist, and were confidential. This result was achieved in a field survey conducted independently by Litbang Kompas in 1,364 respondents on November 29, 2024 to December 4, 2023.

The undecided voters in the survey consisted of the accumulated answers of respondents who answered no, no, or secret. In the November survey, respondents who answered they did not know about the electability of the three presidential candidates, namely Anies Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto, and Ganjar Pranowo, accumulated 24.9 percent. In fact, in June only 18 percent and in August it even narrowed again to 15.4 percent.

According to Al Azhar University Physip Lecturer Andriadi Achmad, the survey is actually just a small picture of most real voter reality. However, with the method and professionalism of a survey institute, sometimes it can be a benchmark when the survey is conducted related to the electability of contestants in the presidential election.

"But, keep in mind the dynamics and massive movements of the candidates and winning teams at a certain time will affect the survey results when the survey is re-implemented," Andriadi told VOI.

Andriadi added, on the one hand, the survey can be used as a wrong measuring tool for the electability of certain candidates, but on the other hand, the survey results can serve as a warning for other candidates.

Proses memasukkan logistik dari gudang KPU Kabuapten Natuna ke dalam lori Pelni yang akan dibawa ke Pelabuhan Selat Lampa pada Jumat (2/2/2024). (Antara/Muhamad Nurman)

"The survey cannot be used as a benchmark to ensure victory in the 2024 presidential election. The three candidate pairs still have a chance to win the 2024 presidential election," he concluded.

MenukilKompas, kamolah undecided voters sebetulnya tidak bisa diselerated. Mereka akan justru menjadi penentang Pemilu. Penyelenggara, terlebih peserta Pemilu, yaitu para calon Capres-Cawapres atau partai politik, sangat perlu mempertimbangkannya.