Is The Electability Survey Winning The 2024 Presidential Election?

Residents wore hair bando with Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka decoration during the grand campaign for the National Order in Semarang, Central Java, Sunday (28/1/2024). (Between/Aji Styawan/nym)

JAKARTA The electability survey of presidential and vice presidential candidates is often considered as an illustration of the results of the General Election. However, political analysts say the electability survey is dynamic so that it is not a reference for voters in the 2024 presidential election.

Up and down the electability of the vice presidential candidate pair ahead of voting day is commonplace.

Before Ganjar Pranowo's name was appointed as a presidential candidate from PDIP, his electability was quite high. However, the electability of the former Governor of Central Java has declined as political dynamics occur in the country.

On the other hand, Prabowo Subianto's electability survey is fairly consistent. Jokowi's effect is said to have played a major role in controlling the Minister of Defense's electability ahead of the D-Day of voting.

However, can today's electability be an illustration of the results of the presidential election which will be held on February 14th?

Electability is an absorption from English, electability, which means electability. According to the Big Indonesian Dictionary (KBBI), electability refers to the criteria for choice. In politics, a person's electability is high if the criteria for electability are in accordance with the many prospective voters.

According to the Executive Director of the Indonesia Public Institute (IPI) Karyono Wibowo, the electability survey is dynamic and can change at a certain time. Karyono said many things could affect electability because it depends on political dynamics.

"It could describe the reality of the vote acquisition in the election later, but it could also change, depending on the political dynamics that occur, political struggles, strategic competitions, and so on," Karyono told VOI.

"The electability survey is influenced by various variables, one of which is debate, although it is not significant but there is an effect. According to Kompas, 10 percent of voters change after the debate, but the majority of voters remain in their choice," he added.

In addition to debate, other variables that also affect the electability survey according to Karyono are issues that develop in election contestation, both positive and negative. He said, all couples must get negative and positive sentiment, depending more on where the sentiment is.

So far, the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka couple has often outperformed their two competitors, the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair and the Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD pair.

The couple, who were promoted by the Forward Indonesia Coalition, even tended to be in the top position constant, although in a number of debates Prabowo's appearance was considered less convincing.

Meanwhile, Ganjar Pranowo's electability was high before his declaration as a presidential candidate from PDIP. But on his way, after political dynamics, Ganjar's electability decreased. Karyono explained, Ganjar's electability could depend on the political dynamics in the future.

The same thing was also expressed by political analyst Pangi Syarwi Chaniago. Overtaking each other in the order of electability ahead of the election is just a political dynamic. According to him, the electability of the presidential and vice presidential candidates is not necessarily a reference for voters in the 2024 presidential election.

Pangi said in a political electoral manner, the survey results could give the team a sense of optimism. But on the one hand, the survey results made the team careless, too confident.

He also added that the survey results could not be used as a reference for the presidential election because of the many variables that needed to be observed, as well as changes in the mood of the public or voters.

"Today's survey results do not necessarily have the same results, because today's findings there are still variables that cannot be measured. For example, the behavior variables of our undecided voters, whosewing voters, who support voters, can migrate and move, can go back and forth," Pangi explained.

"There is a single majority, they hide their choice, they don't tell the truth, they will have different choices from today when on D day," he added.

According to Antara, the latest survey from Data Research Analytica shows that the electability of the presidential-Cawapres pair number two reached 51.7 percent and is estimated to win the 2024 presidential election in one round.

In the second position, Anies-Cak Imin's number one pair with 21 percent electability, who are ahead of the third pair Ganjar-Mahfud MD with 20.1 percent electability. The rest, as many as 7.2 percent said they did not know or did not answer.

"The electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair reached 51.7 percent, so that the 2024 presidential election is likely to be completed in one round," said Executive Director of Analytica Research Data Nana Kardina in a written statement, Tuesday (30/1/2024).

The Analytica Research Data Survey was conducted from January 20 to 25, 2024, face-to-face to 1200 respondents representing 38 provinces. The survey method is multistage random sampling, with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.