Is It True That The Number Of COVID-19 Cases Will Decrease In The Second Week Of July, As Luhut Predicted?

JAKARTA - Coordinator for the Implementation of Emergency Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan predicts the increase in positive cases of COVID-19 will decrease after July 12 or the second week of this month.

This prediction is based on the incubation period of the virus that causes COVID-19 after the Emergency PPKM has been running since last Saturday, July 3. Where, said Luhut, the virus will incubate for 10-12 days.

But are these predictions correct?

Referring to the calculations of an epidemiologist from the University of Griffith Dicky Budiman, this prediction could be wrong. He said that this Emergency PPKM does not guarantee that COVID-19 cases can decrease quickly even if it is carried out optimally.

Because Indonesia needs four effective combinations to overcome the Delta variant virus which makes the spread faster.

"With this PPKM, even though it is carried out optimally, it does not guarantee (acceleration of decline or decrease in positive cases of COVID-19, ed)," said Dicky to VOI, Tuesday, July 6.

As for the efficacious combination, the first is the implementation of 3T or testing, tracing, and treatment. With testing increased sharply, the virus will be known and traced its spread.

However, Dicky considers 500 thousand tests in one day to be insufficient. So, the government needs to maximize.

The second is vaccination. According to him, this is important because countries that have won the match against COVID-19 are those that have reached 50 percent of the vaccination target.

"The coverage of this vaccine is to reduce (the transmission of COVID-19) and reduce morbidity and mortality," he said.

Next, the government does need to make restrictions. However, Dicky thinks that lockdown or lock-up is actually a more appropriate thing because it completely limits the movement of people.

This is certainly different from the Emergency PPKM which can still make people move freely. "In fact, in recent days crowds are everywhere and this makes the potential for impact reduction even further," explained Dicky.

Fourth, the government should start carrying out visitations or visits to homes to control the spread of the virus. Moreover, 80 percent of COVID-19 cases occur in-home or family clusters.

If all of this is carried out properly, Dicky said that at least the slowing down of new COVID-19 cases could be felt at the end of August.

"In two weeks of Emergency PPKM, there is a slowdown, but it's still not sloping. The ramp will be at the end of August," he said

His confidence is also getting stronger because until now there is still a lot of homework that the government has to do. One of them is to regulate the implementation of work from home or work from home in order to limit human movement.

"So I remind you that this is not yet the worst. Indonesia, especially Java, is not yet the worst. At the end of July, I think it will be the peak, but the problem now is how much effort we make to prevent a big explosion," he said.

Previously, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan as the Coordinator of the Java-Bali Emergency PPKM said that although the pandemic would slow down after 12 July, he predicted that a more massive increase in COVID-19 cases was very likely. Thus, Luhut ensured that the government had taken steps to deal with it.

One way is to encourage hospitals to convert beds. It is hoped that this method can increase the capacity of available beds in hospitals to 30 to 40 percent for COVID-19 patients.

"I think the bed, if arranged properly, shouldn't be too much of a problem," he said.

In addition, the allocation of beds is also now starting to be regulated depending on the severity of the COVID-19 patient. "If his saturation is above 95 or 94 he has no clear signs or OTG, we will self-isolate," said Luhut.

Later those who are self-isolating can take advantage of the telemedicine platform so that the burden on hospitals can be reduced.

"So the hospital is only for people who really need it. While others can do self-isolation and assisted by telemedicine with clear criteria," he concluded.