Grand Coalition Must Be For The Interests Of The Nation And State, Not Just Political Pragmatism

President Jokowi and five political party chairmen in the Ramadan gathering held by PAN in South Jakarta on April 2, 2023, became the beginning of the formation of a major coalition that was revealed. (Doc. Ministry of Trade)

JAKARTA – According to the Executive Director of the Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (Indostrategic) Ahmad Khoirul Umam, the discourse of forming a grand coalition is not an easy matter, especially in the context of equalizing perceptions regarding the determination of the presidential candidate (Capres) and vice presidential candidate (Cawapres) to be carried.

If the PDI Perjuangan is included in the coalition, as the ruler with the most number of seats in parliament, the party bearing the white bull's muzzle symbol will certainly determine which presidential candidate it will carry.

"The question is whether the other five parties, Gerindra, PKB, Golkar, PAN, and PPP agree?" said Umam to VOI on April 10, 2023.

Meanwhile, if the PDI Perjuangan chooses a different path, it does not mean that the problem is over. Clashes still occur, especially in determining the vice presidential candidate who will accompany Prabowo Subianto.

"If the presidential candidate is clear, from the information and political gimmicks presented by the Palace, they are leaning towards Prabowo, other parties are also likely to agree. But who is the representative, this is the problem," Umam continued.

Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto discussed forming a grand coalition with PAN chairman Zulkifli Hasan at the Kertanegara residence, Kebayoran Baru, Jakarta on April 8, 2023. (Antara/M Risyal Hidayat)

The Golkar Party National Conference has mandated that Airlangga Hartarto become the presidential and vice presidential candidates. This means, said Umam, "It's impossible for Golkar to give tickets for free to the vice president who also doesn't necessarily win, so as compensation he will definitely pick the candidate for vice president."

On the other hand, it has been clear since 2019 that he wants to enter into the presidential election contest, even since 2014.

"The branding varies, from the current cawapres, Panglima Santri, Gus Ami, Gus Muhaimin, and so on. The sign is that there is great interest from PKB in bringing Cak Imin as part of the contestants in the presidential election. The hope is that it can consolidate a loyal voter base from both nahdliyin and non-nahdliyin to increase the electability of the party," said Umam.

It was also this reason that made PKB move so quickly to approach Gerindra to form the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KIR) so that the possibility of Cak Imin becoming vice presidential candidate was higher.

"But if it is included in a large coalition, the possibility will decrease again," said Umam.

The National Mandate Party (PAN) will also propose its vice presidential candidate in the 2024 election. However, according to Umam, not Zulkifli Hasan but Erick Thohir, "Yes, it's no secret, Erick will make PAN his political vehicle in the next election."

With his logistics, it was as if Erick had bought two Islamic-based political forces, namely PAN as a representation of Muhammadiyah's strength and PBNU's influence which seemed to give him a big stage as a figure who had just been naturalized as Nahdliyin.

"In the context of a grand coalition, Erick seems to be using PAN as a bargaining position to get the cawapres position," said Umam.

It is these three forces that will clash with each other. If there are no clear, mutually beneficial negotiations, the coalition is vulnerable to breaking up. It is possible that in the future PKB and Golkar will actually withdraw, join other coalitions or form a new coalition.

Not to mention the United Development Party (PPP). Will this party remain loyal to the grand coalition? PDI Perjuangan will likely attract PPP to join if it later decides to build its own coalition.

"On the one hand, PDI Perjuangan needs to strengthen the votes of Islamic-based parties. PPP on the other hand will also find it difficult to refuse because of the debt of gratitude from the past when it was rescued so that it passed the parliamentary threshold in the 2019 elections," said Umam.

In essence, it is not easy to unite the agenda of the interests of each party. It all depends on the context of lobbying and negotiations that will be carried out.

Three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates

Even so, Indonesia's political movement is still very dynamic. If these parties are able to form a coalition, it means that there will likely be three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates who will contest the 2024 presidential election.

The first candidates were supported by the NasDem Party, the Democratic Party, and the Prosperous Justice Party. The second candidate is supported by the Grand Coalition and the third candidate is supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

“Or it could even be four pairs. If later PKB and Golkar are disappointed then form their own coalition. The target is not to win, just to consolidate their loyal voter base. Also to split the sound. Later when there are two pairs left, Golkar and PKB will see an opportunity to get closer to a pair that has the potential to win, the nature of Golkar is like that," explained Umam.

Big Idea

Whatever the movement is and whoever the coalition will be in the future, a communications expert from the University of Indonesia, Effendi Gazali hopes that every coalition will be built with ideas. According to him, there is no clear reason for forming a grand coalition.

“Usually a large coalition is formed because there is a big problem or challenge in a country that must be resolved with big ideas and a large group of supporters. Now, we must find out what are the big issues and ideas that have been circulating lately? I find it hard to find," he told VOI on April 10, 2023.

Precisely a grand coalition can eliminate the opportunity for potential leaders to emerge.

"The candidates are narrowing. The practice of sharing power will be more massive. It also tends to reduce the balance of checks and balances in the future," added Effendi.

If the discourse on forming a grand coalition materializes, Prabowo Subianto will most likely be nominated as a presidential candidate. (Antara/Muhammad Adimaja)

Political communication expert from Sahid University Jakarta, Antonius Benny Susetyo, also hopes that the coalition of political parties will no longer only talk about practical politics.

But they have started discussing the agenda for change so that public policy-making is more effective in applying Pancasila values, especially in economic governance.

Pancasila must be prioritized as a working ideology and a living ideology in building economic governance that truly provides social justice for all Indonesian people.

"It's time for a coalition of political parties to no longer talk about pragmatism, what I got and what project, but to talk about the interests of the nation and state in facing an uncertain situation," he told VOI on April 10, 2023.