ポルマトリックス・インドネシアの調査:プラボウォ・ウングリ・ガンジャールとアニスの当選可能性

JAKARTA - The findings of the Indonesian Polmatrix survey show that the Minister of Defense and General Chair of the Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto excels with an electability of 25.1 percent, as well as beating Ganjar Pranowo (24.0 percent) and Anies Baswedan (19.5 percent).

"Prabowo can beat Ganjar if both of them run as presidential candidates, while Anies has decreased in electability," said the Executive Director of the Indonesian Polmatrix Dendik Rulianto in a statement reported by ANTARA, Saturday, May 20.

According to Dendik, the political map of presidential candidacy will be dominated by the struggle for superior positions between Prabowo and Ganjar.

"The strengthening of public support makes Prabowomakin confident to run as a presidential candidate, and become a magnet for parties outside the PDIP coalition," said Dendik.

So far, only Gerindra and PKB have remained committed to carrying Prabowo, belonging to the Greater Indonesia Awakening (KIR) coalition. It is said that Golkar, which leads the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), will join after PPP closes to PDIP.

"Efforts to form a large coalition are slightly hampered by PDIP's maneuvers to presidentialize Ganjar, as evidenced by the release of PPP who also declared support for Ganjar," said Dendik explaining.

Beyond the top three, the central board of the presidential candidate exchange is still controlled by names such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (4.8 percent) and Ridwan Kamil (4.5 percent). The surprise occurred with the increase in Puan's electability (4.0 percent) to shift Sandiaga Uno (3.6 percent).

Next is Erick Thohir (2.5 percent), Khofifah Indar Parawansa (1.5 percent), Airlangga Hartarto (1.3 percent), and Mahfud MD (1.0 percent).

"Another surprise is the inclusion of the name of President Jokowi's eldest son, namely Gibran Rakabuming Raka (1.0 percent)," said Dendik.

The rest occupy the lower ranks, such as Andika Perkasa (0.7 percent), Yenny Wahid (0.6 percent), Susi Pudjiastuti (0.5 percent), and Muhaimin Iskandar (0.5 percent). Other names totaled 0.4 percent, and some stated they did not know / did not answer as much as 4.6 percent.

The Indonesian Polmatrix Survey was conducted on May 5, 2023, to 2,000 respondents representing 34 provinces. The survey method is multistage random sampling with a margin of error survey of approximately 2.2 percent and at a 95 percent confidence level.