JAKARTA - The political tension between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a crisis in a number of fields. Apart from the crisis of confidence in the Eastern European region, the increasing escalation has also affected the economic sector.
One that is increasingly striking is the issue of energy. It's no secret that Russia is known as one of the main providers of energy sources for countries in Western Europe which incidentally is a big enemy ally, namely Ukraine.
If the conflict between the two countries of one mother is unavoidable, then it is not impossible that Europe will be overwhelmed by the energy uncertainty that has been happening since the end of last year.
Just so you know, the Russian gas and oil pipeline to the west takes a route that is part of the sovereignty of Ukraine. This condition then makes the situation in the field like a tangled thread.
"Russia may deliberately refuse to supply all of its gas to Western Europe as a form of resistance to retaliate against international sanctions against its country," said Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) for the 2016-2019 period Arcandra Tahar in his explanation on Tuesday, February 8.
According to him, any response that Russia has taken in its energy policy must have a damaging effect on the economies of Western European countries if war really breaks out.
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Arcandra explained that with the winter still going on in the next few months, Europe can only last a maximum of six weeks with available LNG reserves. In this case, Russia will feel the upper hand.
“There are several possible consequences as a result of the above scenario. First, coal and nuclear plants will be revived especially in retired Germany. As a result, coal prices can rise again like last year," he said.
Second, LNG imports will increase which will result in an increase in spot prices. Third, European energy companies may rethink their return to the oil and gas business.
"All efforts to increase production from the Western European region will continue to be made," he said.
Arcandra added that the current conditions on the Blue Continent provide a lot of new understanding in the name of energy utilization and use.
"One thing we can learn from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is that it is not only technology and commercial that must be considered in developing a strategy towards zero emissions, geopolitics can actually distort the strategy that has been designed," he concluded.
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