Shifting Maps Of Political Party Coalitions Is Very Possible

Illustration - Simultaneous General Elections in 2024. (Between/Illustrator Abdullah Rifai)

JAKARTA Political dynamics ahead of the 2024 General Election are increasing, especially after the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) announced Ganjar Pranowo as a candidate for president. A number of general chairmen of political parties began to build intense cross-coal communication to raise various issues related to the formation of new forces.

For example, the National Mandate Party held a special meeting in Ramadan's gathering with the President at the PAN DPP office, Jakarta on April 2. Apart from President Jokowi, the event was also attended by five general chairmen of political parties. The five are Golkar Chairman Airlangga Hartarto, Plt Ketum PPP Muhammad Mardiono, Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto, and PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin). Also, PAN Chairman Zulkifli Hasan as the host.

Golkar also did the same. Still in the moment of Eid, Airlangga visited Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Chairman of the DPP Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) at Puri Cikeas, Bogor Regency on April 29.

Then, met Prabowo again at the residence of the Chairman of the Golkar Board of Trustees Aburizal Bakrie two days later.

The National Awakening Party (PKB) is the same. After together with 6 other general chairmen of government-supporting parties, the President's invitation at the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta on May 2, Cak Imin immediately rushed to Puri Cikeas at night.

Then, he and Airlangga held a closed meeting at the Plataran Senayan Restaurant, Jakarta on May 3, 2023.

Meanwhile, Gerindra continues to strengthen its political base by presenting new cadres. Prabowo also seemed to be diligently gathering with a number of groups, including the elders of the TNI.

Both PAN, Golkar, PKB, and Gerindra are still looking for equal perceptions regarding the future political direction. There is no certainty who will be supported by these four parties as presidential candidates.

A political observer from Al Azhar University, Ujang Komarudin, considers it a common thing in politics. Moreover, if the chairman generally wants to contest the election.

They certainly need space to explore all the possibilities that happen. In politics, if not opponents, friends, or vice versa. Everything is based on interests. If the interests are the same as red, it will definitely join the red, if it is the same as blue, it will join the blue," he told VOI on May 4, 2023.

It is undeniable, Executive Director of the Institute for Democracy & Strategic Affairs (INDOSTRATEGIC) Khoirul Umam said that the dynamics of inter-party coalitions in Indonesia currently show only the orientation of pragmatic interests.

It is natural that the negotiation process for forming a coalition is tough and does not easily find a point of compromise. This is because the political communication that is built is based solely on the tug of interest and the compensation negotiations' of multiparty actors for which the majority are oriented-sekingsemata.

Look at PPP first expressing a close attitude to PDIP to provide support for Ganjar, even though two other parties that are members of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), namely Golkar and PAN, are still under investigation.

Also look at the growing issues regarding the possible failure of Anies Baswedan's candidacy, as a result of a covert movement to ensure that PDIP does not become the main ruling party in the 2024-2029 period.

Of course, the key to fighting PDIP based on a number of analyzes is to unite the voices of Islamic-based parties, especially parties that have a big vote from the nahdliyin circles.

Because reflecting on the 2019 election, Jokowi's victory came from nahdliyin's voice. That's why, PKB has a strong bargaining value to determine who can accompany Jokowi as a presidential candidate. Moreover, the support is agreed by other supporting parties such as Golkar and Nasdem.

Ma'ruf Amin was chosen because he is clearly a senior at the Nahdlatul Ulama (PBNU) Executive Board and is more popular with nahdliyin. This was acknowledged by the Chairman of the Advisory Council of the United Development Party (PPP) DPP Muhammad Romahurmuziy on the YouTubeTotal Political account which aired on May 3, 2023.

Mr. Airlangga had time to go to Mrs. Sinta's house (Alm Gus Dur's wife). Apparently, after that, the two of them went to Megawati and said that Mr. Jokowi still invited Mr. Mahfud MD, so Golkar and PKB to leave the coalition, we advanced ourselves," said Gus Romi, Romahurmuziy's nickname.

If indeed there is a hidden movement, the Coalition for Change for Unity (KPP) party is likely to withdraw support for Anies Baswedan. Moreover, Nasdem has also been considered a opposing party.

The proof is, of the 7 parties supporting the current government, only Nasdem was not invited to the meeting on May 2.

"Yes, it was not invited. Nasdem is yes, we have to talk as it is, we already have our own coalition. And this is a combination of parties that gathered yesterday, they also want to build other political cooperation," said President Jokowi in Sarinah on May 4, 2023.

Nevertheless, said Ujang, politics is still very dynamic. The shift in the coalition map is likely to occur.

"We'll just have to wait and see if the discourse on forming a new coalition called a grand coalition will be realized, whether Anies can run for president or not. The construction will be visible ahead of registration," he said.

Referring to the schedule for the 2024 General Election by the KPU, registration of presidential and vice presidential candidates will take place on 7-13 September 2023. The KPU will then determine presidential-vice presidential candidates, members of the DPR, DPD, and DPRD who meet the requirements on October 11, 2023.

Whatever changes will occur later, Umam suggested that the current frenzy of coalition discussions should begin to be shifted from those based solely on shallow logic related to revenge politics or economic-political profit-loss calculations to a coalition model that is truly oriented towards developing substantive ideas.

It can be implemented through corrections as well as new policy offers based on ongoing government studies and evaluations. The Slogan of sustainability or change must be explained more concretely.

History proves that a coalition capable of building narratives, ideas, and also strong promotions, which are easily accepted by reason and common sense, will have a greater possibility of winning people's hearts, minds and voices as legitimacy to continue the mandate of the post-election national leadership in 2024, in a statement received by VOI on May 4, 2023.