Market Awaiting Fed Decision, JCI Is Predicted To Weaken Today

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) is predicted to weaken in today's trading, Monday, December 16, because the market is still waiting for the results of the Fed's meeting regarding the United States (US) interest rate policy.

JCI closed down 69.44 points or 0.9 percent to 7,324.78 at the end of trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) on Friday, December 13 last week. During the week, the JCI had also fallen 0.79 percent.

The flow of foreign funds was also recorded at Rp1.48 trillion in all markets and Rp225.27 billion in the regular market over the past week.

Phintraco Sekuritas in his research saw that the rally of strengthening Wall Street indexes ended last week. The weakening is indicated to be triggered by a tendency to 'cash is king' in line with strengthening the United States (US) dollar index following the cutting of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate and Swiss central bank last week.

The market seems to be waiting for the Fed's decision in the FOMC December 18, 2024 as a catalyst or validation for window dressing in the last week of 2024.

"Before the FOMC, there was a potential for bond rotation, following the increase in the US 10-year bond yield and above 4.4 percent on Friday, December 13," explained research by Phintraco Sekuritas.

The above conditions have the potential to suppress the JCI again, especially earlier this week. The potential for the issuance of foreign funds aka capital outflow is estimated to be quite strong at the beginning of the week.

However, sentiment likely reversed following the announcement of the FOMC results on December 18. The rupiah exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of Rp. 16,000 US dollars this week.

Indonesia's export-import performance data is not expected to have a significant effect, considering that export value growth in November 2024 is expected to slow down compared to October.

Phintraco Sekuritas predicts the JCI will move at support level 7,280 and resistance at 7,430, with a pivot at 7,350.

The JCI movement sentiment at the beginning of the week will also be influenced by market responses to China's economic data, including property prices, fixed asset investments, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rates.

China's fixed asset investment data is expected to continue recovering in anticipation of the potential increase in demand, supported by the economic stimulus plan by 2025.

The stocks recommended by Phintraco Sekuritas are MIDI, MYOR, ICBP, DOID, ARTO, and ADRO earlier this week.