Clean Sweep of Java or Agreement in Jakarta Regional Election?

Photo Illustration By Andry Winarko (VOI)

JAKARTA – The 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election (at least the first round) has ended. Candidate pair for governor and deputy governor number 3, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno declared their victory in just one round.

The confidence of winning in one round of the candidate pair supported by the PDI Perjuangan is based on the real count results of the DKI Jakarta KPUD and the calculation of the C form from the KWK results, Thursday, November 28, 2024, which are said to have reached 100 percent of polling stations throughout the Jakarta area.

"Alhamdulillah, the real count results of the DKI Jakarta KPUD and the calculation of the C form from the KWK results as of this morning, Thursday, November 28, 2024, have reached 100 percent of polling stations in all electoral districts in Jakarta, showing the results for candidate pair number 03, namely 2,183,577 votes or 50.07 percent," said Pramono Anung in a press conference, Thursday, November 28, 2024.

The Pramono-Rano pair's claim of victory is actually in line with the quick count results of various survey institutions. However, the issue of the Jakarta gubernatorial election only having one round is still debatable, considering that there are differences in the quick count results of survey institutions regarding Pramono-Rano's vote acquisition which exceeded 50 percent plus one for one round in the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election.

The quick count results of Indikator Politik Indonesia found that the Pramono-Rano pair won 49.87 percent, RK-Suswono 39.53 percent and Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardhana 10.61 percent of the vote. This is different from the quick count results of Charta Politika Indonesia, where Pramono-Rano had won 50.15 percent, ahead of RK-Suswono with 39.25 percent and Dharma-Kun 10.60 percent.

Regarding one or two rounds in the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election, political observer Hendri Satrio alias Hensat has his own opinion. According to him, the chances of victory for the Pramono Anung-Rano Karno pair depend on the attitude of President Prabowo Subianto. Because he considered that the success of PDIP in Jakarta still depends heavily on whether the party led by Megawati Soekarnoputri joins the government coalition.

"Whether or not the second round (of the Jakarta Pilkada) occurs, the key is how President Prabowo wants PDI Perjuangan's position in his government. If PDIP decides to remain outside the government coalition, the Pramono-Rano pair's hopes of winning in one round could just be wishful thinking," said Hensat, Monday, December 2, 2024.

"If President Prabowo wants PDIP to be with his government, then Pramono-Rano will be allowed to win. However, if the opposite is true, then Ridwan Kamil-Suswono will be "forced" to win, in order to sweep clean in the Java region," he continued.

Hensat's premise could be true. Because, the Executive Director of Survey and Polling Indonesia (SPIN), Igor Dirgantara assessed that the Jakarta Pilkada became a battle of national political elites between Jokowi, Prabowo, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono against Megawati Soekarnoputri, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok and Anies Baswedan who at the last moment declared their support for the Pramono-Rano pair. "The 2024 Jakarta Pilkada is not just a competition between candidates, but also a competition between political elites, namely Prabowo-Jokowi-SBY vs Megawati-Ahok-Anies," he added.

Pramono's Closeness to Jokowi and Prabowo Could Be a Form of Agreement

The figure of Anies Baswedan, who has been known as the antithesis of Jokowi with his slogan of change, is indeed like a game changer in the Pramono-Rano camp. Political observer Emrus Sihombing said that Pramono-Rano's victory had been "smelled" since Anies declared his support, which was seen by the skyrocketing electability of Pramono-Rano ahead of the voting day, November 27.

Illustration: Prabowo Subianto during dinner with Jokowi. (IG @Jokowi)

"Before the voting, I had a hypothesis that Pramono-Rano would win in one round. The trend of increasing electability with the support of Anies Baswedan. Anies' support with "Anak Abahnya" has a big effect on Pramono-Rano Karno," he explained.

The issue of Anies' support for Pramono-Rano was once highlighted by Maruarar Sirait. The Minister of Housing in the Red and White Cabinet said that Anies' support for Pramono-Rano made the Advanced Indonesia Coalition as the supporter of RK-Suswono even more enthusiastic.

In fact, he wanted to prove whose support was stronger between Anies in the Pramono-Rano camp and the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia Joko Widodo and President Prabowo Subianto who were claimed to be in the ranks of supporters of Ridwan Kamil-Suswono. "We see which is stronger, PDI Perjuangan or Anies or Ridwan Kamil who is supported by Jokowi and Prabowo," said Ara.

These factors also ultimately made PDIP Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto warn all volunteers, sympathizers and party cadres to be vigilant in guarding Pramono-Rano's votes. The reason is, PDIP is reluctant to be caught out by the maneuver that then completed the big victory of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) which was also supported by the 7th President Joko Widodo in the Java region. "Be vigilant because there are certain parties who are trying to force the Jakarta Pilkada to have two rounds," he said.

He revealed that there were several findings that then made PDIP vigilant. One of them was the alleged violation of ASN neutrality through the maneuver of the Acting Governor of DKI Jakarta who reshuffled the sub-district heads and village heads while the election was in progress. "The reshuffle is already contrary to the Pilkada Law, specifically Article 71 paragraph (2). Not to mention if we talk about the potential politicization of social assistance and the involvement of individuals we call the brown party," said Hasto.

Indostrategic Executive Director, Ahmad Khoirul Umam assessed that, regardless of the political agreement between Megawati Soekarnoputri and President Prabowo Subianto after the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election, the PDI Perjuangan General Chairperson had actually made a smart decision when appointing Pramono Anung as the Jakarta gubernatorial candidate.

This is because Megawati deliberately chose a figure who has been known to have close ties with both Jokowi and Prabowo. It could be, he continued, that the closeness between Pramono, Jokowi and Prabowo is a form of political agreement. As is known, Pramono served as Cabinet Secretary during Jokowi's ten-year administration, where Prabowo was also the Minister of Defense.

"Pramono's closeness to Jokowi and Prabowo is what makes Jokowi and Prabowo's political cells also seem not to be released to destroy Pramono's political pillars. In other words, the holders of the remote power are made hesitant to "finish off" the PDIP candidate who was ganged up on, considering their personal closeness so far," said Umam.