Sweep Java Or Agree In The Jakarta Regional Head Election?

Photo Illustration By Andry Winarko * VOI)

JAKARTA - The 2024 Jakarta Pilkada (at least the first round) has ended. The candidate pair for governor and deputy governor number 3, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno declared their victory even in just one round.

The belief in winning a round of candidate pairs promoted by the PDI-P is based on the results of the DKI Jakarta KPUD's real count and the calculation of the C form resulting from KWK, Thursday, November 28, 2024, which is said to have reached 100 percent of polling stations throughout Jakarta.

"Alhamdulillah, the results of the DKI Jakarta KPUD's real count and the calculation of the KWK results C form as of this morning, Thursday, November 28, 2024, have reached 100 percent of polling stations throughout the Jakarta electoral district by showing the results for pair number 03, namely 2,183,577 votes or 50.07 percent," said Pramono Anung at a press conference, Thursday, November 28, 2024.

The claim for the victory of the Pramono-Rano pair is actually linear with the results of quick calculations from various survey institutions. However, the issue of the Jakarta Pilkada is still one round that can be debated, considering that there is a difference in the fast calculation of survey institutions related to Pramono-Rano's vote acquisition which passed 50 percent plus one for one round in the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada.

The results of the quick calculation of Indonesian Political Indicators found the Pramono-Rano pair earning 49.87 percent, RK-Suswono 39.53 percent and Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardhana 10.61 percent of the votes. This is different from the results of the quick calculations of Charta Politica Indonesia, where Pramono-Rano has won 50.15 percent, ahead of RK-Suswono with 39.25 percent and Dharma-Kun 10.60 percent.

Regarding one or two rounds in the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada, political observer Hendri Satrio alias Hensat has his own opinion. According to him, the chance of victory for the Pramono Anung-Rano Karno pair depends on the attitude of President Prabowo Subianto. Because he considered that the success of the PDIP in Jakarta was still very dependent on whether the party led by Megawati Soekarnoputri joined the government coalition.

"The key is whether or not the second round (Pilkada Jakarta) occurs), the key is how President Prabowo wants the PDI-P position in his government. If PDIP decides to remain outside the government coalition, the hope of the Pramono-Rano pair to win in one round will only be wishful," said Hensat, Monday, December 2, 2024.

"If President Prabowo wants PDIP to be with his government, then Pramono-Rano will be allowed to win. However, if the opposite is true, then Ridwan Kamil-Suswono will 'forced' to win, so that the clean sweep in Java," he continued.

The premise raised by Hensat could be true. This is because the Executive Director of Survey and Polling Indonesia (SPIN), Igor Dirgantara, considers that the Jakarta Pilkada is the battle of the national political elite between Jokowi, Prabowo, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono against Megawati Soekarnoputri, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok and Anies Baswedan, who at the last moment declared their support for the Pramono-Rano pair. The 2024 Jakarta Pilkada Event is not just an inter-paslon competition, but also a political inter-elite competition, namely Prabowo-Jokowi-SBY Vs Megawati-Ahok-Anies," he added.

Pramono's Closeness With Jokowi And Prabowo Could Be A Form Of Agreement

Anies Baswedan's figure, who has been known as Jokowi's antitesta with his slogan of change, is like a game changer in the Pramono-Rano camp. Political observer Emrus Sihombing said Pramono-Rano's victory had been'smelled' since Anies declared his support, which can be seen by Pramono-Rano's skyrocketing electability ahead of voting day, 27 November.

Congested image: Prabowo Subianto during dinner with Jokowi. (IG@Jokowi)

"It's okay"

"It's okay"

"It's okay"

"It's okay"

Before voting, I had a hypothesis that Pramono-Rano would win one round. The trend of increasing electability with the support of Anies Baswedan. Anies' support with his 'Child' has a big effect on Pramono-Rano Karno," he explained.

Regarding Anies' support for Pramono-Rano, Maruarar Sirait has highlighted it. The Minister of Housing in the Red and White Cabinet said Anies' support for Pramono-Rano made the Indonesian Coalition Forward as the bearer of RK-Suswono even more enthusiastic.

In fact, he wants to prove who is stronger between Anies in the Pramono-Rano camp with the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia Joko Widodo and President Prabowo Subianto who are claimed to be in the line of supporters of Ridwan Kamil-Suswono. "We will see more strongly the PDI-P or Anies or Ridwan Kamil who is supported by Jokowi and Prabowo," said Ara.

These factors also ultimately made the Secretary General of PDIP, Hasto Kristiyanto, warn all volunteers, sympathizers and party cadres to be aware of Pramono-Rano's voice. The reason is, PDIP is reluctant to be missed by maneuvers which then fulfilled the big victory of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) which was also supported by the 7th President Joko Widodo in the Java region. Alert because there are certain parties who try to force the Jakarta Pilkada to have two rounds," he said.

He revealed, there were several findings that then made PDIP vigilant. One of them is about the alleged violation of ASN neutrality through the maneuver of the Acting Governor of DKI Jakarta who reshuffled the sub-district and village head while the regional elections were rolling. The reshuffle is already contrary to the Pilkada Law, to be precise Article 71 paragraph (2). Not to mention if we talk about the potential for politicization of social assistance and the involvement of individuals that we call a brown party," said Hasto.

Indostrategic Executive Director Ahmad Khoirul Umam assessed that despite the political agreement between Megawati Soekarnoputri and President Prabowo Subianto after the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada, the PDI-P General Chair actually issued a smart decision when appointing Pramono Anung as a candidate for Governor of Jakarta.

This is because Megawati deliberately chose a figure who had been known to have a close relationship with both Jokowi and Prabowo. It could be, he continued, that Pramono, Jokowi and Prabowo's proximity factor was a form of political agreement. As is known, Pramono served as Cabinet Secretary in the ten years of Jokowi's administration, where Prabowo also became Minister of Defense.

This factor of Pramono's closeness to Jokowi and Prabowo also seems to be not released to destroy Pramono's political pillars. In other words, the remote holders of power are made gamang to 'terminate' candidates from PDIP who have been beaten by crowds, given their personal closeness so far, "said Umam.