The Two Dynasty War In The Banten Gubernatorial Election And The Smooth Road To Control The Agglomeration Region

Photo by Andry Winarko (VOI)

JAKARTA Drama of determining the potential for regional head candidates in the 2024 Pilkada not only occurred in Jakarta, but also colored the determination of the future cakada in Banten. The drama which eventually gave birth to war' between the two dynastics in the 2024 Banten gubernatorial election.

The two dynastys that will fight for the throne of the Governor and Deputy Governor of Banten are none other than the Natakusumah Dynasty and the Chasan Sochib Dynasty. Yes, after almost two decades of controlling Pandeglang Regency, the Natakusumah Dynasty through Achmad Dimyati Natakusumah this time tried their luck at a higher level, namely Banten Province.

For the people of Pandeglang Regency, the Natakusumah Dynasty is no longer foreign. Dimyati has led Pandeglang Regency for two terms from 2000 to 2009. After Dimyati, the leadership in Pandeglang was continued by his wife, Irna Narulita, who was the Regent of Pandeglang for two terms from 2015 to 2025. Now, in the 2024 Pandeglang Pilbup, the Natakusumah Dynasty was represented by Dimyati's younger brother, Raden Dewi Setiani.

Returning to the Banten Pilgub, Dimyati, paired with Andra Soni will fight against the representative of the Chasan Sochib Dynasty, Airin Rachmi Diany. Of course, it is not an easy contestation for Dimyati, considering that the Chasan Sochib Dynasty is known to have rooted, not only at the provincial level but also in various cities and districts in Banten.

Not to mention when talking about popularity and electability. Last June, Litbang Kompas conducted a survey involving 400 respondents related to the Banten gubernatorial election. The survey results with a margin of error of 4.9 percent and a 95 percent confidence level showed Airin had an electability rate of 38.3 percent, while Achmad Dimyati Natakusumah only 2.7 percent.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) which conducted a survey from July 27 to August 4 involving 800 respondents also showed that Airin was still being founded in the Banten Pilgub. The results of the survey with a margin of error of 3.5 percent and a 95 percent confidence level revealed that Airin's electability reached 77.3 percent compared to Andra Soni, which was only 10 percent. Meanwhile, when the simulation was in pairs, the Airin Rachmi Diany-Ade Sumardi duo was able to achieve an electability of up to 73.7 percent, and the Andra-Dimyati pair was in the range of 12.2 percent.

Unfortunately, although the results of various survey institutions show that Airin is the strongest candidate, Ratu Atut Chosiyah's sister-in-law's steps are not smooth. In fact, the status as Chair of the Prabowo-Gibran TKD in Banten in the 2024 presidential election did not necessarily make her promoted as a candidate. Political parties that are members of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) including the Golkar Party, who changed clothes to the Advanced Banten Coalition, prefer the pair Andra Soni-Dimyati Natakusumah.

Lika Liku Airin Maju Di Pilgub Banten 2024

However, the Constitutional Court Decision Number 60/PUU-XXII/2024, which eased the threshold for nomination of regional heads, changed the political constellation in the Banten gubernatorial election. The PDI-P, which received a 'gift' from the Constitutional Court' decision, immediately declared and carried Airin as a candidate to pair with Ade Sumardi on Monday, August 26, 2024.

After the day after the PDI-P officially carried Airin, the Golkar Party turned around. Tuesday, August 27, 2024 coincided with the opening of registration for the legislative and cawagub for the 2024 Pilkada, the General Chairperson of the Golkar Party, Bahlil Lahadalia, like his own saliva. The politician who replaced Airlangga Hartarto's position canceled the support previously given to Andra Soni-Dimyati Natakusumah, changing to carry Airin Rachmi Diany-Ade Sumardi in the 2024 Banten gubernatorial election.

Untuk Provinsi Banten, yang pasti teman-temen bertunggu yang dari kemarin, memang ini prosesnya panjang. Memang barang bagus itu pasti itu memang banyak yang minat, ujarnya saat itu.

Bahlil emphasized that it was not right for the Golkar Party not to take Airin to compete in the Banten gubernatorial election. This is because the Golkar Party is home to Airin, and the former Mayor of South Tangerang is likened to the biological child of the banyan party. "The Golkar Party handed over B1-KWK to the candidate pair for governor of Banten Province, namely Mrs. Airin from the Golkar Party and her partner, the deputy governor, namely Mr. Ade Sumardi," Bahlil said.

Regardless of the reasons put forward by Bahlil Lahadalia in public, Executive Director of Indonesian Political Parameters (PPI), Adi Prayitno, has his own assessment regarding the turn of the Golkar Party. According to him, the decision proves that Airin is able to make the Golkar Party cornered. Moreover, Airin has been tempted to join the PDI-P which has already given him a recommendation to run for the Banten Pilkada.

"The Airin case actually proves how reluctant the Golkar Party is to lose their best cadres. Whatever it is Banten is a cage and the locomotive of the Golkar Party in Banten is Airin's extended family. So, if he moves, of course, a big loss for the Golkar Party," he explained, Monday, September 2, 2024.

"It is very risky for the Golkar Party if it does not carry Airin. Because the Golkar Party bases in Banten can king and follow where Airin's political support goes," added Adi Prayitno.

Banten Is One Of The Keys To The Agglomeration Area

Preventing Airin Rachmi Diany's move to the PDI-P, Adi Prayitno-in the midst of the alleged rift in Megawati Soekarnoputri's relationship and President Joko Widodo-can be one of the strategies of the Golkar Party and KIM. Moreover, Banten is one of the provinces whose territory is an agglomeration area in Jakarta as regulated in Law Number 2 of 2024 concerning the Province of the Special Region of Jakarta (UU DKJ).

Article 51 paragraph (2) of the DKJ Law states that the Agglomeration Area covers at least the Provinces of the Special Region of Jakarta, Bogor Regency, Tangerang Regency, Bekasi Regency, Cianjur Regency, Bogor City, Depok City, Tangerang City, South Tangerang City, and Bekasi City.

This means that three Banten areas, namely Tangerang Regency, Tangerang City and South Tangerang City, are included in the agglomeration area. Meanwhile, Article 55 of the DKJ Law states that the agglomeration area will be under the control or coordination of the agglomeration council appointed by the president, consisting of the chairman and members.

The appointment of the Chairperson of the Agglomeration Council by the president is different from the discussion of the DKJ Bill. In Article 55 of the DKJ Bill, the Agglomeration Council will be led by the vice president, in this case Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Although changed, this is the reason why Jakarta, West Java and Banten cannot be separated from KIM. Moreover, it is still open that the president may choose Gibran as Chairman of the Agglomeration Council as regulated in the DKJ Bill before it is ratified into the DKJ Law.

The Executive Director of the Strategic Political Trias, Agung Baskoro, assessed that the formation of KIM Plus in the 2024 Pilkada was considered an effort to smooth the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka government in carrying out its programs, especially in provinces that are in the spotlight such as Jakarta, West Java and including Banten. The context of KIM Plus is realized none other than to make it easier for Prabowo-Gibran to lead so that the mindset of sustainability can also run at the regional level," he added.

Regional autonomy expert, Djohermansyah Djohan, warned about the election of the Chairperson of the Agglomeration Region Council. According to him, if the president returns to his initial thoughts as stated in the DKJ Bill, where the vice president will lead the Agglomeration Council, then the power of the vice president will be too large and potentially take place in the long term.

"A total of 17 percent of national economic cakes are in Jakarta. So, if Gibran leads, he can hold the national economy. Imagine the economy and politics are in one hand. He can control the lives of many people, maybe up to seven derivatives. That's dangerous. It's very risky for democratic government, "he said.

City planning expert Nirwono Joga stated that the appointment of the Chairperson of the Agglomeration Area Council was like a symalakama fruit. If Gibran is chosen, then the assumption of perpetuating Jokowi's power will be more real. Meanwhile, if other figures, there will be concerns that the figure will receive national attention.

"Of course political content remains thick. In fact, whoever manages Jakarta, especially with the agglomeration area properly, will get political provisions to run for the next presidential election, such as Jokowi and Anies," he said.

"Even though the capital city has moved, Jakarta will remain the spirit of Indonesia until 2045. At IKN, what are you going to do, it will not have a direct impact. But in Jakarta at this time, the slightest activity could immediately be in the spotlight," added Nirwono Joga.