Ajaib: Crypto Market Awaiting Signal The Fed And Trump Deal

Illustration (photo: Unsplash)

JAKARTA - The prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) moved cautiously this week. BTC is trading in the range of 116,000-119,210 US dollars (Rp1.87-1.93 billion), while ETH is between 3,600-3,871 US dollars (Rp58.3-62.6 million).

Ajaib's Financial Expert, Panji Yudha said that investors are still waiting for important decisions from the United States (The Fed) central bank and the latest economic data.

According to him, the Fed's chances of lowering interest rates in July were only about 3.1%, much smaller than 62% in September.

"This confirms that the Fed has more potential to hold short-term interest rates fixed in the range of 4.25% - 4.50% on the FOMC this week," Panji said in a written statement.

However, market sentiment strengthened after US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union.

The deal involved a large investment of 600 billion euros (Rp9,720 trillion) and a US energy purchase of US$750 billion. Instead, the US lowered the trade rate.

This news immediately pushed the stock market and made the price of Bitcoin rise again to over 118,000 US dollars (Rp1.94 billion), after previously dropping to 114,000 US dollars (Rp1.87 billion).

Panji also sees that the interest of large investors in crypto assets is still strong. One proof of this is the entry of funds into Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETF (Exchange-Trad Fund) products.

Market participants are now looking forward to two important things this week, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, July 30, and US employment data (Nonfarm Payroll) which will be released on August 1.

"If there is a signal that interest rates can be lowered faster, the crypto market can increase significantly," said Panji.

Inflation data (Core PCE) and work reports in July will also be decisive. If inflation falls or the labor market starts to weaken, hopes for a cut in interest rates can increase, and that could be a breath of fresh air for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.