JAKARTA - BitMEX crypto exchange founder Arthur Hayes has warned investors to prepare for Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility in the coming months. He predicted Bitcoin would plummet but soon recover to reach his new ATH.
In its latest analysis, Hayes projects BTC could drop to 32% from the current price, hitting a range of US$70,000 US$75,000 (Rp1.13Rp1.22 billion), before finally surging to a new record high of 250,000 US dollars (Rp4.05 billion) by the end of 2025.
"I'm sure the bull cycle isn't over yet, but probabilityally, we'll probably see a correction first. It's similar to the situation at the end of 2021, just before the market declines sharply," Hayes wrote, referring to the period when BTC fell from $69,000 to $16,000 in 2022.
Macroeconomic Factors That Affect Markets
Hayes highlighted several global macroeconomic factors that could affect BTC movement:
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Data from CoinMarketCap as of January 29, 2025 showed BTC was trading at around USD 103,825 (IDR 1.68 billion), up slightly 2.5% on trading this morning at 07:01 WIB, Thursday January 30. Bitcoin slumped 4% from its all-time high on January 20. 2025 of USD 109,000 (IDR 1.77 billion). If Hayes's prediction was accurate, BTC could potentially test support levels at USD 70,000 (IDR 1.13 billion), which would be the first significant drop since 2022.
Some analysts doubt Hayes' projections. "The correction of 30% may be too much. The dominance of Bitcoin ETF in the US and the inclusion of institutional funds can be a buffer," said Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, quoted by CoinDesk.
However, a report from Glassnode on July 1, 2024, supports Hayes' view, recording a 40% decrease in BTC trading volume in the past week, indicating a profit-taking by large investors.
Despite the challenging short-term outlook, Hayes warned that "Bitcoin has always managed to recover from the corrections. If my prediction missed and BTC immediately rose to USD 250,000 (IDR 4.05 billion), I would still be happy as HODLer," added Hayes.
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