After Spot Bitcoin ETF Approved, Market Analyst Predicts Ethereum ETF

Ethereum, the second largest crypto asset by market cap. (Photo; Doc. Pexels)

JAKARTA - After the SEC approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF proposals on Tuesday, January 9, 2024, analysts expect the Ethereum ETF to emerge. One of the analysts predicting Ethereum's ETF presence is Eric Balchunas, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Balchunas said he was optimistic that the SEC would approve Ethereum ETF in May 2024.

According to a Bitcoin.com News report, VanEck, a US-based asset manager company, has filed Ethereum's ETF. Balchunas assessed that the SEC's possibility of approving ETF Ethereum was 70% in May 2024. This is based on the time limit provided by the SEC to decide on VanEck's ETF Ethereum proposal, May 23, 2024.

Furthermore, Balchunas also said that the SEC's decision on the ETF Bitcoin spot would affect Ethereum's ETF decision. If the SEC approves of Bitcoin ETF, then Ethereum's ETF opportunity will also be wide open.

"I think if they agree to the Bitcoin ETF, they will agree to the Ethereum ETF. They will not differentiate between the two," Balchunas said, as quoted by Cointelegraph.

Balchunas is known as an accurate analyst in predicting the ETF. Before the SEC approved 11 spot-based Bitcoin ETFs, he had estimated that the chances were 95%. He also had time to predict that the futures-based Bitcoin ETF would be approved in October 2023, which turned out to be true.

Different views

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with Balchunas predictions. Joe Carlasare, a pro-crypto lawyer from law firm Sadis & Goldberg, said the SEC's approval for Ethereum ETF might take longer than expected.

Carlasare assesses the SEC still has concerns about the risk of manipulation and fraud in the crypto market, especially in unregulated spot markets. Therefore, the SEC may be more careful in evaluating Ethereum's ETF proposals.

"I think Ethereum's ETF will launch in the third quarter of this year. I don't think they will agree to it in May," Carlasare said.

Carlasare also said that the SEC might be waiting for legal cases between Grayscale and the SEC. Grayscale, the world's largest crypto asset manager, sued the SEC for rejecting a request to convert Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into ETF.

Grayscale argues that spot-based Bitcoin ETFs and futures share the same risks and should be treated equally by the SEC. However, the SEC denied this and said that spot-based Bitcoin ETFs are more vulnerable to manipulation and fraud than future-based Bitcoin ETFs.

At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $2,639, up 10.9% in the last 24 hours and 18.2% in a week. ETH is the second largest cryptocurrency in the world with a market capitalization of 308 billion US dollars (IDR 4,784 trillion).