Predictions Of Group B Euro 2024: Spain, Italy, And Croatia Prepare To Dominate

Spain is the favorite team of Group B (photo: x @SEFutbol)

JAKARTA - The draw for Euro 2024 produces several interesting groups, and there may not be anything more interesting than Group B. The group consists of three teams each with a great opportunity to advance deep in Germany: former European champions Spain and Italy, as well as Croatia who finished third in the 2022 World Cup, along with Albania.

Three European champions, Spain, will start their Euro 2024 campaign on June 15 when they face Croatia in Berlin. Unlike penalty shootouts, La Roja have only lost twice to their last 22 games at Euro (13 wins, 7 draws), but perhaps worrying for them, the two defeats took place against Croatia and Italy in the 2016 tournament.

However, Spain will be confident to qualify for the round of 16, having reached the knockout stage in six of their last seven Euro appearances; the only exception was in 2004. They are predicted to qualify from Group B in 89.1% of Opta's 10,000 supercomputer pre-tournament simulations, and top the group in 47.3% of them.

Spain must often enter the opponent's penalty box. Their last goal from outside the penalty box occurred in the match against Slovenia in the group stage of Euro 2000. Luis de la Fuente will be Spain's first manager since Javier Clemente (Briday Cup 1998) who leads La Roja in a major tournament without ever playing for the national team as a player.

With a 9.6% chance to win the tournament, Spain is the fourth favorite to win Euro 2024 by supercomputer, behind England (19.9%), France (19.1%), and Germany (12.4%).

They had to overcome a group that not only featured the 2022 World Cup semifinalists, but also the defending European champions. Italy (80.3%) is the second favorite of the supercomputer to qualify for the last 16. They surprised a lot of people when they lifted the trophy three years ago at Wembley, after beating Spain in the semifinals on their way to beating England in the final on penalties.

If Italy succeeds again in Germany, they will be the second country to successfully defend the trophy after Spain did so in 2012. This will be Luciano Spalletti's first major international tournament as head coach of the Azzurri. The former Napoli boss is following in the footsteps of the other 10 Italian coaches who lead Italy at the Euros, where no non-Italy manager has ever done so.

As the clich expression, don't expect their match to be a match with a high score. Because 45 Italian matches in the European Cup resulted in an average of only 1.84 goals (52 for, 31 against), the lowest ratio of 25 teams to have participated in more than 10 matches in this competition.

Italy have only won the Euros again in 5.0% of simulations, making them their eighth favorite, just in front of one of their Group B opponents.

Croatia will be a strong proposition, although their performances at the European Cup have not been comparable to their performances at the World Cup. They have reached the semifinals in their 50% appearances at the World Cup (3 out of 6), but have not yet reached the top four at the Euros (no semifinals in 6 appearances).

Zlatko Dali Will be the first manager to lead Croatia to four major tournaments in a row. Since his appointment in 2017, Croatia has reached the top four of the World Cup twice (second place in 2018, third place in 2022) and round of 16 at Euro 2020.

Croatia has a 67.8% chance to advance from Group B, but only has a 2.0% chance of winning the whole tournament. Luka Modrief will be key to their prospects. Without including the play-offs, the Real Madrid star was involved in the fourth most open shot from any player during the Euro 2024 (66) qualification, behind Bruno Fernandes (81), Kylian Mbappe (75), and Granit Xhaka (74).

Albania is the undeniably underdog of this group, but that doesn't mean they will be an easy opponent for the other three teams. Sylvinho led Albania to their second major international tournament after Gianni De Biasi took them to Euro 2016. The former left-back of Arsenal and Barcelona will be the first head coach of the European Cup since Luiz Felipe Scolari led Portugal in 2008.

Albania finished at the top of their Euro 2024 qualifying group in front of the Czech Republic and Poland. Jasir Asani was very helpful in that regard, being involved in more goals in qualifying than any other Albania player (3 goals, 2 assists). In fact, his three goals were scored from just four on target. They also had Rey Manaj talent who was reliable in this striker scored 18 goals in the Turkish Super League for Sivosspor in 2023-24.

They were only given a 33.4% chance to qualify for the round of 16, but if they could start well in their opener against Italy on June 15, don't underestimate them.