JAKARTA - Political observer Refly Harun assesses that Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo will lose if he decides to withdraw from PDIP to run in the 2024 presidential election.
"It's a loss if he decides to leave PDIP Fraction. After all, it's not necessarily the last constellation that causes Ganjar to not be promoted by PDIP", Refly said on his personal Youtube channel, Monday, October 11.
According to Refly, the political dynamics of Puan and Ganjar can still change in the future. In fact, he said, it could be that Megawati Soekarnoputri, the PDIP General Chairperson, would instead carry Ganjar in the 2024 presidential election, rather than her daughter based on her electability.
"For example, at the beginning Megawati's reluctance to nominate Jokowi, but because Jokowi's survey was always above Megawati and always above Prabowo, while Megawati was always under Prabowo. Finally, Megawati was willing to take the last moments in 2014 if I'm not mistaken, then Jokowi decided to go forward", explained Refly.
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Instead, Refly hopes that Ganjar and Puan Maharani can both run as presidential and vice presidential candidates.
"So the scenario that we can think of, which I have pondered and also based on the incoming information and also a rational study, is actually Ganjar Pranowo more supported by President Jokowi, than other candidates from the PDIP", he said.
Nevertheless, Refly believes that Ganjar will not be frontal, let alone still lead Central Java until 2023. According to him, Ganjar is lucky because he has more time to introduce himself as a presidential candidate.
"Ganjar Pranowo is lucky because his term of office expires in 2023. Unlike Anies Baswedan, which expires in 2022. So Ganjar can think more freely to determine his next steps. For now I think just concentrate on the position in the governor of Central Java", said Refly.
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