Delta Variant Crisis Hasn't Ended, Java-Bali COVID-19 Cases Are Predicted To Rise Mid-September

Illustration of PPE COVID-19 (Photo: Pixabay)

JAKARTA - Epidemiologist from Griffith University, Dicky Budiman, said that currently, COVID-19 cases outside Java and Bali are heading towards a period of crisis. When the crisis period had passed outside Java-Bali, Dicky warned of the potential for a spike in cases in Java-Bali in mid-September.

He called the phenomenon like a ping pong ball game. "The mid-September prediction is because outside Java is heading for a period of crisis, and they are caused by this variant of Delta," he told reporters, Friday, August 27.

"Once again I remind that this Delta variant can attack Java and Bali again, so that's what is happening in England now, they have welcomed it, the next wave has happened again, so even when vaccinations have started, there will be more," he continued.

According to him, this is an important warning not to lose health protocols and not to rely on vaccinations.

"Because the test positivity rate was not maintained, then there was a lot of easing, that's why Indonesia was warned by the WHO, because the easing was too drastic in the midst of testing capacity, decreased tracing. And this will later contribute," he continued.

According to Dicky, the data on the spread of Corona can be seen from the number of deaths. The high death rate, said Dicky, is one of the many possible cases that are not detected.

"So with this formula, we can predict deaths in the next 3-4 weeks from the current infection cases. And conversely, the current deaths can calculate, predict how many infection cases are contributing to the current death. If we talk about a thousand deaths, it's at least 120 thousand cases of infection per day in the last 3 weeks," he said.

With this calculation, Dicky believes that undetected cases in a day can reach 50 thousand cases, referring to the high mortality rate.

"So imagine, so our missing cases are already 50 thousand a day, then I once issued an estimate that at least 1 million cases of our infection were missed during this PPKM period and the impact is serious. This COVID-19 has not yet had a long-term impact and is clearly there. And it can reduce the quality of human resources, long COVID, so there are a lot of things that will harm this country going forward," he explained.

According to Dicky, the way to prevent the potential spike of cases is to do 3T massively and PPKM level to be carried out with discipline. In addition, health protocols must continue to be strictly enforced.

"PPKM is a strategy, right, there will be a pandemic later, we must have a comprehensive strategy that is graded. This is now answered with PPKM levels 4 to 1, so it will continue to be carried out until the end of the pandemic, and leveling determines the response to the situation," he said.

"If you increase it, you can even get to 4 again. So every time you take it down you can't ignore it at 3T, but now you see the 3T is weak, even at level 4 it's already weak, especially to the lower level, this is dangerous and this can be the ping pong phenomenon," explained Dicky

Dicky said that the lack of early detection of Corona cases could increase the death rate to a spike in Corona cases.

"There are still very many undetected cases and once again, our positivity rate test for 2 years is still above 10 percent, and let alone more than a year, just a month the positivity rate test has a tremendous impact on cases in the community and on death," he said.

The Delta Variant Crisis is not over yet

Dicky reminded that Indonesia has not been separated from Corona variant of Delta. He also spoke of the possibility of a spike in Corona cases again in mid-September if mitigation is not carried out.

"It looks like we haven't finished the Delta crisis and I say the potential for a new spike will be in mid-September if the mitigation is still like this and the death rate also has the potential to increase, of course, usually 3 weeks after the spike," explained Dicky.

The spike in Corona cases, said Dicky, is likely to occur in Java and Bali in areas with low testing coverage.

"There are still people from Java, especially in rural areas and villages that have not yet reached the 8 percent positivity rate test status, which is called moderate, this is the problem, this is what will make this crisis condition become our pandemic for a long time and it will go up and down, especially what people will see and feel is the number of deaths because on the other hand vaccination has not reached half of the population so this death will happen," he said.