JAKARTA - Typhoon Bavi continues to weaken after moving far inland in China. However, the biggest threat is no longer strong winds, but heavy rain that can last for days and trigger floods in the north.
China Daily, which was quoted on Tuesday, July 14, said Bavi was moving slowly in a north-northeast direction across Anhui Province on Monday morning. The rain belt is still wide, reaching areas from Fujian and Zhejiang to Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin.
Head of the National Meteorological Center of China Chen Tao said the typhoon was moving northeast at a speed of about 15 kilometers per hour. Bavi is expected to cross Jiangsu and Shandong before entering the northern part of the Yellow Sea around noon on Tuesday.
"Although it continues to weaken, the impact of Bavi must not be underestimated, especially in Liaoning and Jilin," said Chen.
The northern region of Liaoning and the central part of Jilin are expected to receive 300 to 450 millimeters of rainfall. In some locations, daily rainfall can even surpass previous records.
The storm moving north carries a different threat than the typhoon that hit southern China. The wind can weaken after entering the mainland, but widespread and prolonged rain persists.
This condition can trigger flooding far from the location where the typhoon first landed.
Bavi continues to draw large amounts of tropical moisture northward. If the typhoon and surrounding weather systems move slowly, the moist air flow can persist and bring rain for several days.
According to Chen, this situation sharply increases the risk of flooding.
Researcher of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Zhao Dajun said that typhoon tracks are heavily influenced by the subtropical high pressure of the western Pacific. The large-scale high pressure system helps direct the movement of tropical cyclones.
When the system extends westward, typhoons tend to move toward southern China. If it weakens or shifts eastward, the storm has more room to turn north toward the Yellow Sea and northeast China.
Bavi was also pushed further north by stronger upper-level winds.
The relatively warm sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea also helped the storm to last longer.
Even though the storm center did not pass directly over the area, northeastern China could still experience very heavy rain.
Assistant researcher Gao Xiaoyu said mountainous areas can make it rain harder. Moist air that is pushed up following the slope will cool and condense, then produce higher rainfall.
The mountain ranges in Liaoning and Jilin have the potential to strengthen the rain in a number of locations.
Bavi also threatens coastal areas. When crossing the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea, strong winds can push seawater towards the coast, raising sea levels, and increasing the risk of storm surge in Shandong and Liaoning.
The risk increases if the typhoon comes together with high tide.
China is expected to still face two to three typhoons during the flood season from late July to early August. A total of five to six typhoons are predicted to form in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea.
Two to three of them are expected to land or affect China. A very strong typhoon also has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the north.
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