2024 Presidential Election Simulation: Prabowo-Anies Most Elected, Prabowo-Puan Will Lose

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JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Parameters survey institute released the simulated vote results for candidate pairs if the 2024 presidential election was held today.

As a result, Prabowo Subianto is still the strongest presidential candidate despite being paired by presidential candidates with high electability who have emerged recently.

The simulation only brings up two pairs of candidates. In the first scenario, the Prabowo-Anies pair won a landslide victory with 43.8 percent against Puan-Agus Yudhoyono who got 13.9 percent.

"In general, Prabowo Subianto's strong position is as a presidential candidate. Starting from the Prabowo-Anies pair (43.8 percent)", said the executive director of Indonesian Political Parameters Adi Prayitno in a presentation via a webinar, Saturday, June 5.

In the second scenario, if Anies is paired with Agus Yudhoyono, then both will win if they go head to head with the Prabowo-Puan pair. It was concluded that Prabowo would lose if he was compared to Puan Maharani.

Anies-Agus Yudhoyono is ahead with 35.9 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Puan won 21.8 percent support.

"This means that Prabowo Subianto is not a vice presidential candidate", said Adi.

In the third scenario, the Prabowo-Ganjar pair will win with 35.7 percent of the vote if it is simulated to challenge Anies-Sandiaga who gets 32.1 percent.

In the fourth scenario, Prabowo-Sandiaga will still win if they only compete with Puan-Anies. Prabowo Wins 37.7 percent over Puan 25.1 percent.

Meanwhile, support for Puan Maharani as a presidential candidate is not significant.

"For example, in the simulation, Puan-Anies only got 25.1 percent. Likewise, Puan-Agus Yudhoyono only got 13.9 percent", Adi explained.

This survey was conducted on a sample of 1,200 respondents. Taken by simple random sampling method from 6,000 telephone numbers selected randomly from the existing sample frame from face-to-face interviews in the period September 2017-December 2020, and adjusted for the proportion of the population and gender.

The survey's margin of error is +- 2.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Data collection was carried out on 23-28 May 2021, using the telepolling method using a questionnaire conducted by trained surveyors.