To Prevent Mass Layoffs, The Government Asked To Reflect On The 1918 Spanish Flu Case

Illustration. (Photo: Unsplash)

JAKARTA - The government is asked to immediately take quick steps to prevent mass layoffs in the midst of the pressure of the corona virus pandemic or COVID-19. The crisis that occurred in 1918 can be a lesson for the government in taking a stand.

INDEF economist Bhima Yudhistira said that the World Trade Organization (WTO) had issued a statement that the worst thing in 2020 is that the trade volume will decrease by 32 percent and the consequence will be an economic recession in the future.

Bhima explained that the COVID-19 outbreak that occurred throughout the country was only a trigger to deepen the economic recession. Because, before the presence or absence of COVID-19, it is predicted that there will be a global economic recession in 2020.

This situation, said Bhima, was exacerbated by the trade war on the price of crude oil between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Where the current price is far from what is set in the 2020 State Budget, namely 60 US dollars per barrel.

According to Bhima, the viral pandemic is not the first time the world has faced. Previously, in 1918 Indonesia had the Spanish flu. In the previous year, namely 1916, there had also been an outbreak of bubonic plague or rat urine in Semarang and Malang.

The events in 1918 and 1916 were a precondition in many countries, because this epidemic also occurred globally. Bhima said, these conditions provoked the global economic recession in 1930. So it has to do with a big recession.

"The conditions were exactly the same in 1918 and 2020. The Dutch colonial government at that time also took the name of the Spanish flu epidemic too lightly. So they said in several Dutch Indies newspapers that this was like ordinary influenza," he said, in a virtual discussion entitled " Preventing Mass Layoffs Saves the National Economy ", in Jakarta, Friday, April 17.

According to Bhima, the events in 1916 and 1918 that resulted in the economic recession in 1930 were indeed different from the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, from this incident the government could reflect that the crisis caused by the plague could not be taken lightly.

"Pandemic first, then the economic financial crisis. So we can see from history, if the government is unable to take COVID-19 seriously, even if there is denial, history teaches that the wrong handling of pandemics costs very heavy," he explained.

MSMEs Are Not Capable of Being National Economic Refinements

On the same occasion, one of the UMKM players, Dimas, said that the condition that is currently being experienced is a condition that has never happened before. Where based on the 2008 crisis, MSMEs are the heart of the national economy. In fact, MSMEs are considered a sector that is not vulnerable to economic shocks.

However, Dimas said, this time it was different because this crisis did not come from fiscal or monetary origin, but this crisis was based on the COVID-19 virus pandemic. As a result of the outbreak of this virus, the government has placed restrictions on human encounters. Meanwhile, the main heart of MSMEs is social gatherings and social interactions.

"MSMEs have meetings between sellers and buyers, such as in traditional markets. Even though a lot of MSMEs currently go digital, namely online, this is still very different from previous crisis conditions," Dimas explained.

Dimas explained that the MSME sector, such as catering, was dying. This is due to large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) or physical distancing.

"We hope that the MSME actors can make the government be faster, more anticipatory in handling this pandemic. Maybe temporarily get rid of political maneuvers but put forward voices from epidemiologists and pandemic experts. UMKM will immediately recover, "he said.