Towards TPS, German Residents Prepare To Choose A New Parliament

German State Flag/ Photo: freepic

JAKARTA - The voters in Germany will head to the polling station (TPS), Sunday, February 23 to elect a new parliament. The Christian Democratic Party (CDU/CSU) from the central camp is predicted to return to power after more than three years of opposition.

Quoted from the ANTARA news agency, Sunday, February 23, 2025, the CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz is currently ahead in a poll with 29 percent, nearly 14 percentage points ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, Merz is not expected to reach an absolute majority in parliament.

According to a recent poll from the Forsa Institute, the Alternative far-right party for Germany (AfD) rose to 21 percent, strengthening its position as the country's second-largest political power.

However, this anti-immigration party does not have a path to power because all other parties have refused to form a coalition with them.

Analysts see the possibility of a coalition government between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. However, with many voters yet to make a choice and the complex German electoral system, the distribution of parliamentary seats remains uncertain.

Polls released on Thursday show that nearly 27 percent of voters are still hesitant to exercise their voting rights or determine which party they will support.

Who has the right to vote?

More than 59 million German citizens have the right to vote, including 2.3 million novice voters. Voters' composition tends to be dominated by the elderly, with 42 percent aged 60 years and over, while only 13 percent are under 30.

More than 7 million voters have an immigrant background, including more than 1 million German citizens of Turkish descent.

Over the years, voter participation rates have been higher among the elderly, but tend to be lower among young people and voters with migrant backgrounds.

In the 2021 parliamentary elections, the voter participation rate reached 76.6 percent, but decreased to 64.8 percent in the 2024 European Parliament elections.

What is the pattern of the German electoral system?

The German Chancellor was chosen indirectly. Voters vote for new lawmakers, who then determine the chancellor through internal voting.

If the winning party gets a majority in parliament or succeeds in forming a coalition with an absolute majority, their candidate will be the next chancellor.

Germany implements a mixed electoral system, where each resident gives two votes.

The first vote is given to select candidates who will represent their local districts. Meanwhile, the second vote is given to political parties, which further determine the number of seats each party will have in parliament.

Political parties must win at least 5 percent of the total votes or win three district seats directly in order to enter parliament. This threshold aims to prevent parliamentary fragmentation by small parties.

Who are the main parties in Germany?

A total of 4,506 candidates are competing to get 630 parliamentary seats in this election.

Women's representations decreased slightly, with the number of female candidates as many as 1,422 people (32 percent), down from 33 percent (2,024 from 6,211) in 2021.

Of the 29 political parties participating, only six are expected to exceed the 5 percent threshold to enter the Bundestag.

The CDU/CSU Alliance, SPD, AfD, Green Party, and Die Linke socialist parties are predicted to qualify for parliament.

Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the new left populist party, BSW, are still around 5 percent, so their future in parliament is still uncertain.

If FDP and BSW succeed in entering parliament, Merz may have to form a three-party coalition, as key parties such as Christian Democrats and Social Democrats will control fewer seats.

Who has the potential to become Chancellor?

The latest poll from public broadcaster ZDF shows that the candidate for chancellor from the conservative camp, Friedrich Merz, has a higher level of support than the incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

When asked about their preferred candidate, 32 percent of respondents chose Merz, while Scholz only got 18 percent. Green Party candidate, Robert Habeck, even outperformed Scholz with 21 percent support.

Meanwhile, AfD candidate Alice Weidel received 14 percent support, while 15 percent of respondents were still hesitant or refused to vote.

What do the Christian Democratic Party (CDU/CSU) offer?

Merz, 69, made the sluggish economy and mass migration the main focus of his campaign.

To revive Europe's largest economy, he proposed pro-business policies, such as lowering company taxes, ensuring affordable energy, and establishing a digital ministry to lead reindustrialization through digitization.

He also promised to implement permanent border surveillance with neighboring countries to reduce illegal migration and accelerate deportation for granted asylum seekers.

Merz stated that Syrian and Afghan citizens without legal status, as well as migrants committing serious crimes in Germany, would be deported to their home countries.

Merz's support is strong among male voters but low among women, who consider him arrogant and less concerned about women's issues. His level of support among young voters is even only 13 percent.

In the state of East Germany, Merz also faces challenges as AfD has a strong support base there.

What is the policy of the Social Democratic Party (SPD)?

In his campaign, Scholz criticized Merz's populist rhetoric which he considered targeting AfD voters, while he stressed practical solutions to the economy and migration.

Scholz, 66, offers growth and social justice programs, including increasing the minimum wage to 15 per hour by 2026, providing tax breaks for millions of workers, and reducing VAT for basic needs.

Under foreign policy, Scholz remains in support of Ukraine but refuses to ship the Taurus missile that could reach deep into Russian territory.

What is the Green Party's offer?

Robert Habeck, 55, carries a renewable energy transition with a carbon-neutral target by 2035 and halts to coal use by 2030.

He promised to invest heavily in green technology for industrial modernization and sustainable job creation.

What is the policy of the Alternative Party for Germany (AfD)?

Alice Weidel, a candidate for AfD, gained momentum thanks to the support of the Trump and Elon Musk governments.

AfD carries the policy of mass deportation for immigrants, limits social allowances for refugees, and revives coal and nuclear power plants.

In foreign policy, AfD wants to turn the European Union into a loose federation and considers Germany out of the euro zone.

With its controversial policy, AfD is expected to set a record high with 21 percent of the votes in this election.