Research Reveals African Elephant Population Has Decreased By 77 Percent Average In Half Century

Illustration of African elephants. (Wikimedia Commons/GBreen1997)

JAKARTA - A recent study revealed worrying facts about the decline in African elephant population for about half a century in various locations on the continent.

Last week, the research team revealed what they call the most comprehensive assessment of the status of both African elephant species - savanna elephants and forest elephants - using population survey data conducted in 475 locations in 37 countries from 1964 to 2016.

The population of savanna elephants fell by about 70 percent on average at surveyed locations, while the forest elephant population fell by about 90 percent on average at surveyed locations, with poaching and habitat loss as the main driver.

Overall, there is an average population drop of 77 percent in various surveyed locations, covering both species.

It said elephants disappeared in several locations, while their population increased elsewhere thanks to conservation efforts.

"Many missing populations will not return, and many low-density populations face ongoing pressure. We will likely lose more populations in the future," said George Wittemyer, professor of wildlife conservation at Colorado State University and chair of the scientific board of conservation groups Save the Elephants, who helped lead the research published in the journal 'Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences'.

Illegal hunts usually involve people killing elephants for their tusk, which is sold illegally on the international black market, largely driven by ivory demand in China and other regions in Asia.

Meanwhile, the main factor in the loss of elephant habitat is the expansion of agricultural land.

The forest elephant population is estimated to be about a third of the savanna elephant. Wild hunting has affected forest elephants disproportionately and has damaged the population of both species in northern and eastern Africa.

"We have lost a number of elephant populations in many countries, but the northern Sahel region of Africa - for example in Mali, Chad, and Nigeria - has been hit hard. High pressure and limited protection have led to population extinction," Wittemyer explained.

But in southern Africa, the elephant population increased by 42 percent from surveyed locations.

"We have seen real success in a number of places across Africa, but particularly in southern Africa, with the growth of a strong population in Botswana, Zimbabwe and Namibia. For a population that shows a positive trend, we have the management and active management by governments or outside groups that have taken on the role of management," Wittemyer said.

The study did not track population tally across the continent, as various surveys used different methodologies during different time frames to estimate the local elephant population density, making it impossible to carry out a unified tally. Instead, the study assessed the population trend in each surveyed location.

Population estimates by conservationists carried out separately from this study stated that the two species combined amounted to between 415,000 and 540,000 elephants in 2016, the last year of the research period. This estimate remains the latest comprehensive forecast for all continents.

"The loss of large mammals is a significant ecological problem for Africa and the planet," said conservation ecology expert and research co-author Dave Balfour, researchers at the African Conservation Ecology Center at Nelson Mandela University, South Africa.

The world's third elephant species, a slightly smaller Asian elephant, are facing its own population crisis, with the same factors as in Africa.

Regarding African elephants, Wittemyer said, "Although the trend is not good, it is important to recognize the success we have and continue to achieve. Studying how and where we can succeed in preserving elephants is as important as admitting the severity of the decline they have experienced."

"These elephants are not only one of the most plausible and intelligent species that share the planet with us, but are also a very important part of the ecosystem in Africa that sets up a balance between forests and deserts, serves as an important seed spreader, and is a species that many other species need to survive," added Wittemyer.