CNN Survey In Gorontalo Pilkada: Tonny Uloli-Marten Taha Capai 46.1 Percent Electability

Illustration of the 2024 Simultaneous Pilkada (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The National Network (CNN) released the results of a survey related to the electability of the candidate pair for governor and deputy governor of Gorontalo one week before the voting of the 2024 Gorontalo gubernatorial election.

As a result, pair number 01, Tonny Uloli-Marten Taha outperformed three candidate pairs with electability reaching 46.1 percent.

CNN Executive Director Robby Rosiadi revealed that in the simulation of spontaneous open questions to selected respodents if the Gorontalo gubernatorial election is currently held, the Tonny Uloli-Marten Taha pair is at most 42.7 percent.

Followed by the pair Gusnar Ismail-Idah Syahidah 20.4 percent, the pair Nelson Pomalingo-M Kris Wartabone 16.9 percent, and the couple Hamzah Isa-Abdurrahman Abubakar Bahmid 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, 16.9 percent of respondents did not provide an answer.

"Then in the simulation of closed questions to choose one of the four pairs of candidates for Governor and Deputy Governor of Gorontalo, the Tonny Uloli-Marten Taha pair received 46.1 percent support. Then the pair pair Gusnar Ismail-Idah Syahidah received 24.8 percent support," said Robby in his statement, Friday, November 22.

"Furthermore, the pair Nelson Pomalingo-M Kris Wartabone got 17.3 percent, while the couple Hamzah Isa-Abdurrahman Abubakar Bahmid got 3.3 percent. The rest are floating masses of 8.5 percent," he continued.

The survey also measures the level of popularity and preference for all candidate pairs. As a result, the Tonny Uloli-Marten Taha pair had a popularity rate of 80.8 percent and a preferred rate of 81.3 percent.

"Meanwhile, the Gusnar Ismail-Idah Syahidah pair even though the highest level of popularity was up to 86.3 percent. However, the community's preference rate in this candidate pair is only 57.8 percent," said Robby.

"As for the Nelson Pomalingo-M pair Kris Wartabone, the popularity rate is 68.9 percent and the favorite rate is 61.2 percent. Then the Hamzah Isa-Abdurrahman Abubakar Bahmid pair's popularity rate is 50.1 percent and their favorite rate is 41.7 percent," he continued.

According to Robby, the remaining 2024 Pilkada voting day is only a week away, it is still possible for major changes to occur. Moreover, he said, the strong voters of the four pairs were quite clear.

"Where the Tonny Uloli-Marten Taha pair owns 89.8 percent strong votes, Gusnar Ismail-Idah Syahidah 84.7 percent strong votes. Then the Nelson Pomalingo-M pair Kris Wartabone 83.1 percent strong votes, and the Hamzah Isa-Abdurrahman Abubakar pair Bahmid 70.8 percent strong votes," he concluded.

The CNN survey was conducted in the period 10-20 November 2024 or a week before voting on 27 November 2024 through face-to-face interviews.

Sampel withdrawals use a multistage random sampling method with 1,520 samples from 5 regencies and 1 city in Gorontalo Province which is proportionally distributed.

The population of this survey is all Indonesian citizens in Gorontalo Province who have a Gorontalo ID card and have the right to vote in the 2024 Pilkada. Namely, those who are 17 years old or older, or are already married when the survey is conducted.

Assuming a simple random sampling method, the sample size has a margin of error (MoE) of about 0.51 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.