Kapuas Hulu Regional Election Survey: Wahyu-Oktavianus Unggungli Fransiskus-Sukardi

Illustration of the 2024 Simultaneous Pilkada (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Voice Laboratory (LSI) released the results of a survey by two candidate pairs (paslon) of the Regent and Deputy Regent of Kapuas Hulu Regency, West Kalimantan, ahead of the Regional Head Election (Pilkada) which will be held on November 27, 2024. As a result, pair number 02, Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus outperformed pair number 01, Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi.

"In the top of mind choice, Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa won with 38.4 percent, beating the Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi pair who got 36.8 percent," said LSI Executive Director, Albertus Dino, in a statement received Wednesday, November 6.

"Meanwhile, 24.8 percent of respondents chose not to give a choice," he continued.

Then the results of electability in the closed simulation in the simulation of closed questions using questionnaires and silent voice paper, continued Dino, Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa pair received 53.7 percent electability.

Meanwhile, the Fransiskus Diaan - Sukardi pair were at 42.6 percent. As many as 3.7 percent of respondents chose not to vote.

"As for the electability of the regent candidates, the survey results show that the incumbent Fransiskus Diaan is actually lagging behind Wahyu Hidayat, who currently serves as Deputy Regent of Kapuas Hulu," said Dino.

Dino explained, in an open question (top of mind), Wahyu Hidayat's name was chosen by 40.7 percent of respondents, while Fransiskus Diaan received 36.4 percent. Meanwhile, 22.9 percent of respondents did not provide answers.

"The driving factor for the high electability of the Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa pair is influenced by the level of preference and higher acceptance of the community compared to the Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi pair," explained Dino.

Dino said, Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi is known by 80.8 percent of the Kapuas Hulu community and is accepted or liked by 60.2 percent. On the other hand, Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa's couple is known by 79.9 percent of the Kapuas Hulu people and is liked by 82.9 percent.

Competition is also reflected in the results of a survey that captures hardline voters (strong voters) in the 2024 Kapuas Hulu Pilkada. Another factor that is an attraction is the programs offered by the Wahyu-Oktavianus pair, which are more relevant to the needs of the younger generation, especially Generation Z and Millennials.

The program includes training and capital assistance for young MSMEs as well as improving the quality of human resources (HR) in Kapuas Hulu. On the other hand, the program offered by the Fransiskus Diaan - Sukardi pair, such as increasing incentives for teachers or teachers at Kapuas Hulu, has been socialized during Fransiskus' tenure as Regent, but the implementation is still not optimal.

"The high electability of the Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa pair is also reflected in the segment of respondents who are Generation Z and Millennial Generation who are under the age of 40 which amounted to 51.4 percent. From this group, 34.8 percent chose the Wahyu Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa pair, while 15.3 percent chose the Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi pair. 1.3 percent of respondents chose not to vote," he concluded.

This survey was conducted in the period 21-30 October 2024 involving 1,200 residents of Kapuas Hulu Regency spread across 4 urban villages, 259 villages, and 23 sub-districts. The selected respondents came from the Kapuas Hulu Pilkada Permanent Voter List (DPT) totaling 196,115 people.

The sampling in this survey uses the Multistage Random Sampling method. The data was collected through face-to-face interviews with randomly selected respondents.

This survey has a margin of error of 2.82 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.