The Electability Of The Helldy Agustian-Alawi Pair Mahmud Unggul In The Cilegon Pilwalkot Survey

Candidates For Mayor And Deputy Mayor Of Cilegon Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud Unggul (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Election Study Institute (LKPI) released the results of a survey regarding the preference for political choices of Cilegon City residents ahead of the 2024 Pilkada to measure the electoral power map from the three candidate pairs of Mayors and Deputy Mayors of Cilegon. As a result, the Helldy Agustian-Alawi pair Mahmud Unggul in the Pilwalkot Cilegon survey.

Executive Director, Togu Lubis explained, by choice of Top of Mind in the simulation of open questions, pair number 02 Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud outperformed the two competing candidate pairs by being selected by 43.7 percent.

Followed by candidate pair number 01 Robinsar-Fajar in second place by being selected at 20.8 percent. In third place, pair number 03 Isro Mi'raj -Nurrotul Uyun was chosen at 16.7 percent. Meanwhile, 18.8 percent did not choose.

"Likewise, in the closed question simulation, the Helldy Agustian -Alawi Mahmud pair was chosen at 53.4 percent and the Robinsar-Fajar pair was chosen at 22.2 percent. Then, the Isro Mi'raj -Nurrotul Uyun pair was chosen at 18.7 percent and 5.7 percent did not choose," said Togu in his statement, Friday, October 4.

From the results of the electability survey by means of a ballot simulation given to respondents, Togu continued, it was recorded that the vote support for the Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud pair was chosen at 55.8 percent and the Robinsar-Fajar pair was chosen at 21.3 percent.

"Then, the Isro Mi'raj-Nurrotul Uyun pair was chosen as much as 17.3 percent and 5.6 percent of those who did not vote on ballot cards," said Togu.

In addition to electability, Togu added, there are other instruments that are also surveyed. First, the level of approval rating from the Cilegon City government is relatively high with the level of community satisfaction with Helldy Agustian's performance reaching 79.9 percent.

"Meanwhile, those who were dissatisfied were 10.7 percent, and considered it normal to be 9.4 percent," he said.

Second, in terms of popularity and public acceptance of the three candidate pairs. The Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud pair has a level of popularity in the Cilegon community of up to 89.7 percent and a public acceptance rate of up to 83.9 percent.

For the Robinsar-Fajar pair, the popularity level in the people of Cilegon is only 40.7 percent and the level of public revenue is only 38.7 percent. Then the Isro Miraj-Nurrotul Uyun pair with a Popularity level of 50.6 percent and a acceptance rate of 39.1 percent.

"The approval rating factor from Helldy Agustian as the incumbent mayor of Cilegon which is above 75 percent and the level of popularity and acceptance of the Cilegon community towards incumbent Helldy Agustian is a high factor in the electability level of the Helldy-Alawi pair in this survey," he explained.

Then in the stock of choice, added Togu, the Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud pair was recorded to have a strong voter of 81.7 percent and a swing of 18.3 percent. Meanwhile, the strong voters of the Robinsar-Fajar pair were only at 40.8 percent and the swing of the voters was 59.2 percent.

"Meanwhile, the Isro Miraj-Nurrotul Uyun pair had a strong voters of 60.3 percent and a swing of 39.7 percent," concluded Togu.

The LKPI survey was conducted in the period 23-30 September 2024 through face-to-face interviews involving 1,480 respondents from the permanent voter list population (DPT) of the Cilegon Pilkada totaling 330,413 final voters.

Each interviewer interviewed 10 respondents for each elected village/kelurahan.

The survey method uses a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of approximately 2.49 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.