Nabire Regional Head Election Survey: Incambent Electability Shadowed-Imagine Newcomers

ILLUSTRATION OF DOK VOI

JAKARTA - The survey institute Svadhyaya Research Nusantara released the results of a survey related to the electability of regent candidates in the 2024 Nabire Pilkada. As a result, Mesak Magai's incumbent regent candidate is still superior but overshadowed by newcomers.

Operational Director of Svadhyaya Research Nusantara, Gery Gugustomo, said that the majority of people in Nabire Regency still want Mesak Magai to return to lead districts in Central Papua.

The survey showed that Mesak's electability was highest at 37.95 percent when competing with 4 other candidates, namely Hugo Martinus Karuba, Evan Ibo, Oktoviana Woromboni, and Albert Kayame.

However, the electability figure of Mesak Magai is closely overshadowed by newcomers, Hugo Martinus Karuba who received a vote of 33.53 percent. Followed by Evan Ibo at 2.39 percent, Oktovina Woromboni at 1.87 percent, and Albert Kayame at 1.18 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of swing votes or have not yet made a choice is still quite high with the figure reaching 18.09 percent. Meanwhile, respondents who did not choose or abstained were 1.97 percent, and 3.05 percent of respondents chose not to answer.

"The results of the top of the minds of the respondents show a great opportunity for the incumbents Mesak Magai and Hugo Martinus Karuba. So that in the future, it is worth waiting for their steps to achieve as much support as possible from about 18 percent swing voters," said Gery Gugustomo in the release of the Nabire Pilkada survey in Jakarta, Wednesday, July 31.

Gery continued, the results of the Nabire Pilkada contestation did not change much if only three participants participated. Mesak Magai and Hugo Martinus Karuba, said Gery, are still competing closely with each electability of 38.84 percent and 34.51 percent.

Meanwhile, Evan Ibo only has 3.15 percent of the votes. While swing voters are still the winner of the top two candidates with 18.98 percent.

However, according to Gery, the results look different if Mesak Magai decides not to return to the Nabire Pilkada this year.

When survey questions were again reduced to 3 names without including Mesak Magai, Hugo Martinus Karuba's electability automatically peaked with an electability of 44.05 percent.

Followed by OktAVina Woromboni at 9.24 percent, and Albert Kayame who only had 4.72 percent.

"Swing votes, there are still quite a lot in this category by taking second place at 23.60 percent," said Gery.

Gery said that random questions were also carried out by bringing Mesak Magai and Hugo Martinus Karuba back together. He said, both of them still lead the vote of the Nabire community.

"Mesak got 36.48 percent, and Hugo overshadowed tightly with 35.10 percent," he explained.

The reason respondents chose these figures was because the majority of Nabire residents saw a good personality and great concern for the community with a percentage of 40.61 percent.

In addition, 21.24 percent of respondents saw the competence and wisdom of regional figures or candidates for heads.

"When asked about the names presented as Nabire Deputy Regent Candidates, more than half of the respondents or 54.57 percent of them chose Ones Iyai to accompany their preferred Candidate for Regent (cabup). Then followed by Kristofel Mara at 25.17 percent, Roy Wonda 11.80 percent, then Udin Mardin in the lowest percentage was 8.46 percent," said Gery.

The Svadhyaya Research Nusantara survey was conducted on 18-24 July 2024 in four electoral districts (Dapil) consisting of 26 districts/districts proportionally based on data on the last voter population.

The number of survey samples conducted by Svadhyaya was 1,025 respondents through face-to-face interviews by trained personnel with the help/gusioner guidelines.

The survey method used is random-grade sampling (strateified multistage random sampling), with a margin of error (MoE) +/- 3.5 percent at a level of confidence of 95 percent.