Indicator Survey: Anies Wins If Rematch Against Ahok

Anies Baswedan/DOK DKI Provincial Government

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Indicators Survey Institute released a poll on the head-to-head simulation between Anies Baswedan and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) in the DKI Jakarta gubernatorial election.

If the fight between Anies and Ahok occurs again in the DKI Jakarta Pilkada and there is no name Ridwan Kamil, Anies' election is 52 percent superior, while Ahok gets 42 percent. Then, 6 percent of respondents still did not answer.

"Indeed, when the three names were still there and RK was taken out, Mr. Anies' vote increased to 52 (percent). Ahok's vote of course increased by 42 (percent), but the difference was still quite 10 percent," said Executive Director of Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi in an online survey presentation, Thursday, July 25.

The indicator also simulated head to head between Anies and Ridwan Kamil. As a result, Anies remained superior with 50.1 percent electability, while Ridwan Kamil was 38.8 percent. Then, there is still 11.1 percent who has not answered.

"Although again the head to head per day is still anies who excel in the range of 50 percent. But the difference is closer if neither Ahok nor Ridwan Kamil lead to fight Anies. But if the three of them advance, Anies' advantage is much more significant," explained Burhanuddin.

Meanwhile, Anies' top of mind survey also excels significantly from other names. In the top of mind survey, where voters are released to determine who wants to be elected in the DKI gubernatorial election, the result is 39.7 percent choosing Anies.

"Almost 40 percent, to be precise, 39.7 percent chose Anies Baswedan. We can call this strong voters because they can name the governor candidate without us a briefing on the names that will advance," explained Burhanuddin.

The second highest electability after Anies was occupied by Ahok with 23.8 percent electability, followed by Ridwan Kamil with 13.1 percent. "This is a top three, the difference between Anies and Ahok is significant and the difference between Ahok and Ridwan Kamil is significant," he continued.

After that, other names had less than 1.5 percent electability. Among them were Tri Rismaharini 1.4 percent, Erick Thohir 1.1 percent, Erwin Aksa 0.8 percent, Ahmad Sahroni 0.6 percent, Heru Budi Hartono 0.4 percent, Uya Kuya 0.4 percent.

Furthermore, Kaesang Pangarep 0.3 percent, Sadiaga Uno 0.3 percent, Raffi Ahmad 0.3 percent, and several other names below 0.3 percent.

For information, this survey was conducted in the period 18-26 June 2024 with a total sample of 800 respondents who are residents of DKI Jakarta aged over 17 years or married.

The withdrawal of respondents was obtained through a simple random sampling technique with a margin of error of > 3.5 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.