LSJ Predicts 1 Round Presidential Election Due To High Electability Prabowo

The results of a survey by the Jakarta Survey Institute (LSJ) regarding the electability of the three presidential and vice presidential candidates published in Jakarta, Thursday (28/12/2023). (ANTARA/HO-Jakarta Survey Institute)

JAKARTA - The Jakarta Survey Institute (LSJ) predicts that the 2024 presidential election will take place in just one round due to the high electability of candidate pairs number 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

"Because the Prabowo-Gibran pair has managed to penetrate the electability of 50.3 percent, systematically the 2024 presidential election is predicted to take place in just one round," said LSJ Senior Researcher Fetra Ardianto in Jakarta, Thursday, December 28.

Fetra said, although in the survey results the number of voters who have not made a decision (undecided) is 3.4 percent and voters who are still hesitant (swing voters) has reached 23.5 percent, but Prabowo-Gibran's tendency to electability has continued to accelerate in the last two months.

Even if it is still possible for the dynamics of electability in one and a half months before the 2024 presidential election, it is unlikely that the pair Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud can pursue the electability of the couple with the number two.

According to him, Prabowo-Gibran's chances of winning the presidential election are wide open as long as the level of satisfaction with President Joko Widodo's performance is still very high.

Based on the results of the survey he conducted, 76.8 percent of respondents said they were satisfied and very satisfied with Jokowi's performance, while another 18.8 percent admitted that they were less or dissatisfied with President Jokowi's performance and as many as 4.4 percent of respondents answered they did not know.

"It is possible that the pair of Anies-Imin changes can boost their electability significantly in the remaining time ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud, who is changing strategies, is between close and tenuous with President Jokowi's position, indicating that the couple promoted by PDIP and PPP are still not ready to fight in this presidential election contestation," he said.

On that occasion, he also revealed that the majority of the public were not affected by these negative issues in determining their choices, both for the presidential and vice presidential candidate and political party.

"The results of the LSJ survey show that the majority of the public or 67.8 percent of the dynastic political issue is not a serious problem that can interfere with the implementation of the 2024 General Election. Only 21.4 percent consider the issue of dynastic politics as a serious problem and 10.8 percent of respondents do not even give any opinion on the issue at all," he said.

Furthermore, related to fraud in the 2024 General Election, he said, 70.7 percent of respondents did not really believe that the implementation of the 2024 General Election would be full of fraud that benefits certain candidate pairs. Only 22.5 percent of respondents believed that fraud actually occurred in the implementation of the 2024 General Election.

Meanwhile, 6.8 percent of respondents could not even give an opinion on the issue of election fraud which was widely raised by opposition groups.

The NGO conducted a survey using media monitoring analysis methods on December 22-27, 2023, of 1,200 respondents aged 17 years and over or 17 years but are already married spread across 38 provinces of Indonesia through a questionnaire-guided telephone interview technique.

Sampling is carried out randomly, with a margin of error of approximately 2.83 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.