BMKG Still Asks NTB Residents To Be Alert To The Impact Of El Nino Impacts Of Low Rainfall Predictions At The End Of 2023

Officers distributed clean water to drought-affected areas in Penanggak Hamlet, West Lombok, NTB, Tuesday 12 September 2023. (ANTARA-Ahmad Subaidi)

NTB - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) appealed to residents in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) to remain aware of the impact of El Nino in the rainy season. The reason is that rainfall in NTB is predicted to be low at the end of 2023.

"Elnino is strengthening, staying alert to hydrometeorological disasters during the period of reduced rainfall during the rainy season," said BMKG NTB forecaster Cakra Mahasurya in a written statement, Wednesday, December 20, which was confiscated by Antara.

BMKG stated that on the third basis of December 2023 or December 21, 2023, it is estimated that rainfall in the NTB region will generally be in the low category.

Cakra explained, rainfall with an intensity of 20-50 millimeters per basis has a 50-80 percent probability of occurrence which is likely to occur in most parts of NTB Province.

"Meanwhile, the chance of rainfall of more than 50 millimeters per basis is likely to occur in parts of the central area of Lombok Island, Mount Tambora in Dompu and spread in the northern Bima City and Bima Regency with a probability of events of 10 - 40 percent," he said.

Some areas of NTB have been observed to have entered the rainy season 2023/2024 and some are still in the transition period, the public needs to be aware of potential hydrometeorological disasters such as heavy rains accompanied by strong winds that can occur suddenly and are local, floods and landslides.

"In addition, people can take advantage of rain that falls to fill water reservoirs such as reservoirs, reservoirs, or other rainwater reservoirs," he said.

The last ENSO monitoring results show that the ENSO index (+2,087) was observed to be in Elnino's condition and has been going on for 21 basics. Meanwhile, the positive IOD condition is predicted to last until the end of 2023 and Elnino is predicted to continue at least until April 2024.

The flow of air masses in Indonesian territory is still dominated by easteastern winds south of the equator, but westerly winds have been observed along the equator. On the basis of December II, the flow of air masses in Indonesian territory is predicted to be dominated by westerly winds.

"Analysis on the basis of December I 2023 shows that MJO is active in phases 4 and 5 and is predicted to be inactive towards phases 6 and 7 (West Pacific) until the middle of the third basis of December 2023, MJO is related to convection/potential activity of rain clouds in Indonesia," he said.