Latest SMRC Survey: Ganjar Pranowo's Electability Is Recovering, Passing Prabowo And Anies

Ganjar Pranowo (Photo via PDI-P DPP)

JAKARTA - The survey institute Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting released a recent survey regarding the critical voter choice of three figures who have the potential to become presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election.

As a result, Ganjar Pranowo became the most elected figure by critical voters. Then followed by Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.

"In critical voters, Anies Baswedan's electability rate reached 20.1 percent, while Prabowo Subianto was 32.8 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo was 35.9 percent," said SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani in a virtual survey release, Sunday, May 28.

However, there are still 11.3 percent who have not made a choice in the survey.

The results of this survey show that groups of voters have been critical, in the last 5 months, Anies' vote has fallen from 29.7 percent in the December 2022 survey to 20.1 percent in the last survey of 23-24 May 2023.

Meanwhile, Ganjar rose from 31.1 percent to 35.9 percent in the same period. Likewise, Prabowo's support rose from 29.7 percent to 32.8 percent.

"Ganjar and Prabowo competed fiercely for the top, while Anies was in third place with a significant difference in votes with Prabowo and Ganjar," said Deni.

Deni explained the meaning of critical voters'. He said voters who have access to social-political information sources are better because they have a phone so they can access the internet to find out and behave with social-political news.

They generally are lower middle class voters to the upper class. They are more educated and tend to live in urban areas. They also tend to be more able to influence the opinion of the voter group below them," said Deni.

The total number of critical voters in the survey nationally is estimated at 80 percent. The selection of samples in this survey is carried out through the random digit dialing method (RDD).

RDD is a technique for randomly selecting samples through the phone number generation process. With RDD technique, 915 respondents were selected through the random phone number generation process.

The survey margin of error is estimated to be 3.3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, the assumption of simple random sampling. Interviews with respondents were conducted by telephone by trained interviewers. The survey was conducted on 23-24 May 2023.