Di-Endorse Jokowi, Prabowo's Electability In The Lampaui Ganjar And Anies Indostrategi Survey

Political analyst and Director of Indostrategi Research and Consulting, Arif Nurul Imam/doc Indostrategi

JAKARTA - Political analyst and Director of Indostrategi Research and Consulting, Arif Nurul Imam, explained the results of a survey conducted by his party. The survey was conducted to measure public perspectives on various matters, including the potential for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The results of the survey stated that the level of popularity and acceptability showed that Prabowo Subianto's name was still superior to a number of names such as Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. "The survey measures the level of popularity and acceptability of 12 public figures. The results found that Prabowo is still at the peak of the level of public popularity and acceptability," Arif said in an electronic message received in Jakarta, Monday, February 27. The survey release was conducted on Sunday, February 26. In addition to popularity and acceptability, Prabowo Subianto's position is at the top for potential electability rates in the 2024 General Election. "Prabowo is still at the highest electability level if the presidential election is held today with a percentage of 32.9 percent," he said. Meanwhile, the electability level number 2 (two) is filled by the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo, and followed by former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Rasyid Baswedan. "Ganjar is still in second position with 21 percent followed in the top three by Anies with a percentage of 19.8 percent electability," he continued. Furthermore, Arif said that the reason why Prabowo's electability level is still at number one, because there are several factors that are likely to have an impact. Among other things, the question of mentioning the name Prabowo Subianto by President Joko Widodo directly at various great opportunities. "There are several reasons that may be the reason Prabowo is still in the top position. First, Jokowi's endorsement which is getting more intense towards Prabowo has drawn support from Jokowi's loyal voters in 2019," he explained. The endorsement also has the potential to lead Jokowi loyal voters to Ganjar Pranowo migrate to support Prabowo Subianto. "The intensity of Jokowi's support for Prabowo has resulted in the migration of Jokowi voters in Ganjar to Prabowo," he continued. The reason that tends to be very relevant today is because both Ganjar and Anies do not yet have political certainty to run in the 2024 presidential election market. Untuk Ganjar, tiket dari PDI Perjuangan pun masih belum bisanya secara resmi. Termasuk dengan Anies yang masih belum pasti apakah PKS, NasDem dan Demokrat tetap solid mengusungnya di Pemilu 2024 nanti. According to Arif, this uncertainty has the potential to trigger the uncertainty of supporters and sympathizers. One of them is the departure of Ganjar Pranowo Mania (GP Mania) volunteer led by Immanuel Ebenezer and turn it into Prabowo Mania 08. "Second, Ganjar and Anies' candidacy is uncertain. This uncertainty triggers the departure of several Jokowi volunteer organs that support Ganjar and the backflow of Anies voters back to Prabowo," he explained. Furthermore, another reason is related to Prabowo Subianto's actions in President Joko Widodo's administration, so that many voters still position themselves as loyal voters for the Gerindra Party DPP Party. "Third, improving the perception of Prabowo's supporters towards Prabowo's joining of the government. Fourth, Prabowo's visits and activities to several provinces in the past are also suspected of attracting sympathy and support for him," he said. "Fifth, Prabowo's performance as Ministry of Defense. It is also suspected that there is a symmetric relationship between Prabowo's performance and the TNI which has the highest trust from the public," continued Arif. The survey was conducted in the period 14-23 February 2023 involving 1,230 respondents in 34 provinces in Indonesia. The data collection technique uses multistage random sampling with a margin of error (MoE) ± 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.