About Taiwan, CIA Director Values China Learns From Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

Illustration of the flags of China and Taiwan. (Source: Stanford News.edu)

JAKARTA - China is seen as determined to use force against Taiwan, looking at Russia's experience in Ukraine on how, not whether, to attack the island, according to CIA Director William Burns.

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, CIA Director William Burns played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping could move to Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year.

"That risk gets higher, we think, the further into the decade you get," Burns said, citing CNA July 21.

Burns said China was "unsettled" by Russia's five-month war in Ukraine, which he described as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin. because he hopes to overthrow the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our feeling is that it may have less bearing on the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose in the next few years to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they will do so," Burns said.

He said China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you do not achieve a quick and decisive victory with overwhelming force".

"I suspect the lesson learned by the Chinese leadership and military is that you have to muster tremendous power if you are going to contemplate it in the future," he said.

China has also likely learned that it must "control the information space" and "do everything you can to prop up your economy against potential sanctions", he added.

Burns, however, echoed previous US assessments, saying the United States did not believe that Beijing was offering military support to Russia despite rhetorical support.

He said that China had increased its purchases of Russian energy, but appeared to be careful not to be hit by Western sanctions.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, if necessary by force.

The defeated Chinese nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war on the mainland. However, the island has developed into a vibrant democracy and a leading technological force.