Chatib Basri: If There Is A Policy Of Guarding Distance, It Is Impossible For The Economy To Recover

Former Minister of Finance, Chatib Basri. (Photo: Instagram @chatibbasri)

JAKARTA - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest report on the estimated GDP of Indonesia to contract by 1.5 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, in 2021, it will have positive growth in the figure of 6.1 percent. However, this prediction really depends on how the government handles the pandemic.

Former Finance Minister Chatib Basri said economic recovery could occur if the government could resolve the pandemic. According to him, so far the COVID-19 vaccine has been considered the key to tackling the pandemic. However, this vaccine will only be available at the end of 2020 and will be vaccinated in 2021.

As is known, the government will vaccinate 170 million people. However, in the early stages the vaccine will be injected into 25 million vulnerable groups, namely health workers, then people with comorbids and the elderly. This priority number is only a small part of Indonesia's 270 million population.

"We just use a conservative figure, 25 million, 1 year is 365 days. So if I share 25 million for 365 days, I get 68 thousand people per day for vaccine injections. That's fasting, Christmas, Eid there are no holidays. 68 thousand were injected, "he said, in a virtual discussion, Wednesday, October 21.

Meanwhile, said Chatib, the PCR test capability is only around 20 to 30 thousand maximum until today. He then questioned whether Indonesia was able to inject vaccines to 68 thousand people per day for one full year.

"The question is that we are able not to continuously inject 68 thousand people for a year? I don't know the answer and it is reported that the vaccine must be injected twice. So that means we have to talk about 68 thousand times two. This means that during 2021 the vaccine will only be distributed," he said.

Chatib said that as long as the vaccine has not been distributed, 3M's health protocols, namely wearing masks, washing hands, and maintaining distance must be applied. This means that the economy cannot work 100 percent because there are provisions for maintaining distance.

Furthermore, Chatib provides calculation simulations using simple mathematical formulas. He explained that under normal conditions in the last 5 years, Indonesia's economy had grown by 5 percent. If, the IMF predicts that the economy will grow 5 percent next year, it means that the economy will return to normal conditions where it can operate 100 percent. However, the economy is unlikely to operate 100 percent as long as the pandemic persists.

"With the same logic I want to say that it is impossible for him to reach 5 percent, the figure will reach below 5 percent. If he only operates 70 percent, maybe our economy will be around 3.5 to 4 percent around that," he explained.

Chatib said, maybe in the first quarter of 2021, the people who have received some vaccinations will be able to move the economy back. The number will increase, as the number of people vaccinated successfully increases.

However, said Chatib, the economic recovery rate could not reach 100 percent. Because, as long as vaccination has not been distributed to the vaccine target of 25 million people, then the health protocol must be applied, where each sector has received a maximum limit of capacity that must be met.

"For example, air transportation is only 70 percent, or malls and restaurants 50 percent each," he explained.