JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 is expected to weaken against the US dollar.
To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Monday, March 9, 2026, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.14 percent to Rp16,949 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.32 percent to the price level of IDR16,974 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said oil prices jumped by 30 percent, far exceeding $100 per barrel and approaching the highest level seen during the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
"Israeli and US airstrikes targeted Iranian oil facilities over the weekend, while Tehran retaliated by launching missile attacks on several oil facilities in Middle Eastern countries," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, March 10.
In addition, he added that Iran also effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz by attacking ships on the shipping lanes and the strait is the main source of oil for most of Asia, and its potential closure would cause supply disruptions for most of the region.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that the world oil price had touched the figure of 92 US dollars per barrel, a record high since 2020 or far beyond the macro assumptions of the 2026 State Budget which only set the price at around 70 US dollars per barrel.
"And this will increase the deficit by Rp. 6.8 trillion. If the price of oil continues to skyrocket to approach or even exceed 100 US dollars per barrel, the impact will be fatal for the national finances. The state budget deficit to GDP could be boosted to approach 4 percent," he explained.
According to him, this figure is very risky because it exceeds the 3 percent limit that has been set in Law No. 17/2003 concerning State Finances and the collapse of the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point serving 20 percent of the world's oil supply to be the main culprit of this supply bottleneck.
"Facing this critical situation, there are 3 strategic steps that must be taken immediately by the government. First, carry out significant state budget efficiency, so that spending is only for purposes that are directly related to the community. Government spending must be focused only on basic needs of the people such as education, health, food, energy, and poverty alleviation," he explained.
He added that the next step is to reduce oil consumption by more vigorously implementing energy conversion programs from oil to new and renewable energy, including solar energy (PLTS) for industry and housing, water (PLTA), wind (PLTB) as a substitute for PLTD (diesel).
"Third, economic stimulus must be accelerated so that the economy does not collapse with the deregulation program. According to him, rules that hinder economic development can be cut. Likewise, it is necessary to debirokratisasi, bureaucracy that is entangled so that it is difficult for the business world to be simplified," he concluded.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but will close weaker on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 in the price range of Rp16,950 - Rp17,000 per US dollar.
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